Heritage’s High Numbers

I know I said I’d do something other than baseball this week, but I’ve got a question I can’t shake.

Why is Topps Heritage High Number going for $200? Folks have been arguing that Heritage is overpriced at $80-$120, and now people are lining up to rip at $200? I haven’t been this confused in the hobby since the explosion of Project 2020 cards.

A Product in Trouble

Heritage has been in a death spiral in recent years, with long-time fans getting increasingly angry with the product and breakers and flippers not having any interest. It’s one of the few products that could reliably be picked up months after release for a discounted price.

Topps changed up the moribund product by adding in more parallels and including chrome refractors for the base series as well. The announcement was met with derision by the Heritage diehards and disinterest by the rest of the collectorate.

Then, something changed. Over the last couple of weeks, demand and buzz for HHN grew substantially. I’m still not sure what magic Topps brewed up, but a combination of an improved product, lack of recent baseball products, shorting orders from the LCS market, having very few boxes and cases for sale on the Topps website, and a massive increase in prices from the major retailers preceding the Topps sale generated a perfect storm of FOMO.

I’m worried that the large retailers and Topps, without even coordinating, can figure out that the way to drive FOMO is by having the large retailers inflate prices right before a release, and then Topps not providing many boxes to the public via the website.

The retailers then rake in the cash selling boxes at twice what they might, and Topps swoops in and rakes in cash selling to the smaller LCSs for an inflated price as they try to get product after Topps limits their initial orders. Heritage prices have me so confused I’m drifting full-on into conspiracy territory.

Whether FOMO happens organically or not, its impact on pricing is well known.

Is it sustainable?

The current Heritage pricing is only sustainable if it becomes a favorite of the breaking crowd. The Heritage singles market isn’t strong enough to justify $100 a box pricing. Breaker economics works differently, and box prices are a function of how much they can sell spots for.

After seeing a few cases opened, I’m not sure breaking collectors will enjoy the experience enough to be repeat customers. Most cases did have one nice auto and a large stack of no-name parallels, but Heritage breaks will take a long time, and with so many base cards that I’m not sure one nice hit a case will be sufficient to keep interest up.

The other possibility I can see is that all the new Heritage buyers fall in love with the set and become set-builders and hoover up the product. Yeah, I don’t see that as realistic. It’d be nice though.

OTOH

There are very good reasons for HHN being higher priced. The 2024 class is super popular (Skenes mania reigns supreme), and the 2025 class isn’t bogarting attention at all. There aren’t any other baseball products getting attention either. I mean, I’ve seen breakers ripping the Topps Easter Eggs. It’s Opening Day, and folks want baseball products, and Heritage is all that’ll be on tap.

Heritage also has a nice bonus with the Minis being especially popular this year, with a surprisingly large number of collectors building sets of the famous design that started the Minis. A lot of folks spent big building the regular series, and many will do what is necessary to finish the High series. With Minis falling 1:30 packs, it will take a lot of boxes being ripped to make sets.

Ultimately, the fact that a lot of this will be ripped is what makes me think the box prices might be sustainable. There will be a lot of boxes ripped by new Heritage buyers, a lot ripped by breakers, a lot ripped by the long-time Heritage fans, a lot ripped by folks just looking for a baseball product, and a lot ripped by the desperate Mini collectors. With supply going way down, we all know what happens to price.

Wrap-Up

I’m still very confused by the reception of 2024 Topps Heritage High Number, but I will end up benefitting from its popularity as I snap up cheap singles from those disappointed with their rips and breaks. I’m realizing more and more that the best thing for the hobby is whatever gets the packs open and cards into the market. If Heritage hitting $200-a-box is what it takes, sign me up.