Time to Panic
It’s way too early to panic about MLB players that are struggling early, or is it? That’s the dilemma that collectors face every year. Sometimes, early struggles are a sign of a lasting drop in production, but other times, they are the result of bad luck and the streaky nature of baseball.
It’s hard to tell the difference between those two possibilities, but that’s the job facing collectors looking to squirrel away only the finest hitters in their collections. Let’s look at five and figure out if we should be panicking yet.
The Phenom
Dylan Crews was supposed to be one of the big rookies to chase in 2025. He’s been downright awful so far though. He’s got a paltry .120 batting average and is striking out 34% of the time. He’s the only player in the majors currently (with enough ABs to qualify) with a negative value for wRC+.
His expected stats show that he has been a bit unlucky, but he’s missing the ball a lot, and when he does hit it, it is weak contact. On the positive side, he is fast. Blazing fast. He’ll be a stolen base machine if he starts getting on base more.
So, time to panic? A bit. Crews is somewhat the victim of being rushed by the Nationals. He’s been solid in the minors, but he hasn’t had the success that one might expect of a future star. He likely needs a bit more time to figure out his swing.
From a hobby standpoint, believers in Crews will have a good buying opportunity if he gets sent back to AAA. OTOH, he’ll likely be 25 by the time he’s productive in the majors, and his best asset is speed. It’s not time to panic yet, but it is time for healthy skepticism.
The Former Phenom
Bo Bichette was awful in 2024, and many have been quick to proclaim him back. His underlying numbers look fairly close to his 2022 and 2023 seasons. So why do I have him in the disappointment columns?
It’s the zero homers and zero steals thing. In 2021, when Bichette hit 29 homers with 25 steals, collectors bought in thinking he’d be a regular 30/30 guy. It’s looking more like the 29 homers were a bit of a fluke, and he’s more of a 20-homer upside guy. Bobby Witt Jr. last year was the player folks envisioned Bichette being, but he’s much closer to a Dansby Swanson type.
With lower power and speed numbers, it’s worth questioning what Bichette’s place in the hobby is. He’s poised to get a massive contract soon, and I’m eyeing that as my exit ramp for the few Bichette cards I have left. I’m not panicking over a guy hitting over .300, but I am finally being realistic about his hobby potential.
The Superstar
Mike Trout is headed for the HOF on the first ballot and is still one of the biggest names in the hobby. He’s healthy and hitting homers, but he’s also hitting a sad .190. Overall, his numbers are solid with an OPS of .785, but he’s not at the MVP levels he’s been at in the past.
Trout’s expected stats are much better than his actual ones, so he’s the one guy in this column who has been unlucky. His more traditional stats, like average, should start trending upwards.
I’m not worried about Trout’s batting average at all. I am still worried about injuries, but I’m looking for opportunities to add more Trout cards to my PC and am hoping the batting average causes a slight dip for a nice buying window.
The Expected One
Julio Rodriguez is bad in the early goings of a season. He was bad early in 2022, 2023, 2024, and now in 2025. If you want to buy J.Rod cards, just wait for the season to start to buy the April/May dip that looks like it will be an annual event.
That said, J.Rod at least looks like he belongs in the majors this April. It’s wild that he can swing between looking like he should be in AA and looking like an MVP in the same season, but that’s his schtick apparently. Ultimately, if Rodriguez is going to be relatively unproductive in April and May, it’s not much different than a player who misses two months of a season for injuries every year.
Until Rodriguez figures out the Spring months, his peak in the hobby is capped at a top 25 guy. That’s great, but he’s got top 5 if not top 1 potential if he can ever figure out how to not stink at the start of a season. For hobby purposes, that’s the difference between Judge upside and Devers upside. It’s not time to panic when you can predict the bad times.
The One That Hurts
As a Braves fan, I’ve got multiple choices for disappointments. I’m going with Michael Harris II. He’s been awful so far, and there is little to give one optimism in his advanced stats. His launch angle is down, and his expected stats are awful, meaning he’s not simply getting unlucky. He’s chasing pitches that he shouldn’t, and he’s seen his strikeout rate jump accordingly.
What does give me hope is that he’s proven to be streaky. As bad as he is now, I’m sure he’ll start hitting at an MVP level again. I hope.
The thing that gives me concern is he’s really struggling against breaking pitches right now. He’s hitting fastballs consistent with what he’s done in his career, but his numbers have cratered on breaking pitches. At least it is clear what he needs to fix.
The big question is whether his downturns will crush his hobby value. He reminds me a bit of Rodriguez with his variance in performance, but Rodríguez has much more potential, so collectors rightfully haven’t been as patient with Harris. Harris was already becoming a fringe hobby guy, and a couple more months of woes will zap his hobby value severely. All told, panic mode seems warranted with Harris.
Wrap Up
I’ll toss in Ezequiel Tovar as a bonus guy for the wrap-up. He’s a fringe hobby guy to begin with, and he’s on the Rockies long-term. He has little room for error to maintain hobby relevancy, and he might be just about there. I’m in panic mode with him.
Hopefully, I’ve reverse-jinxed all these guys and they’ll all be awesome the rest of the year to spite me and make me look foolish.