What Does Paul Skenes Have to Do to Stay Hobby Royalty?
Paul Skenes is something I didn’t think I’d see again, a hobby-relevant young MLB starting pitcher. Spencer Strider was popular for a minute but still lagged well behind comparable young hitters. I thought Strider’s level of hobby love was as high as it could go for a modern young pitcher. I was wrong. I’m in good company this time at least as Skenes has proven all of his many doubters (in the hobby) wrong so far. The question I’m left with though is what exactly would Skenes have to do to keep his hobby attention this high?
Changes in MLB Starting Pitching
I never doubted Skenes's ability, but rather the changes in the way that starters work in the majors. Increased Tommy John rates and pitching far fewer innings have greatly hampered the career stats that modern pitchers can accumulate. Because of the changes, there isn’t an under-30 pitcher one can say is on a clear HOF path.
Even being a clear HOF path isn’t sufficient to sustain Skenes’ current prices. Chris Sale likely punched his HOF ticket with his Cy Young-level performance this year, but his Bowman 1st auto can be had for around $100 compared to $500 for Skenes. What exactly will Skenes have to do to keep his card prices from dipping to the levels of a borderline HOF pitcher?
Skenes Path to Hobby Greatness
1. Avoid Tommy John- This isn’t the kiss of death for a pitcher’s hobby value that it once was, but there’s no way Skenes cards would not take a sharp nose dive if he loses a year to surgery. Odds are high for this given the increase in surgery rates for pitchers and the fact that higher-velocity guys get TJ more frequently. Surgery wouldn’t derail Skenes completely, but it would certainly put him back on a tier with other pitchers. The odds look to be a coin flip if Skenes will avoid it or not.
2. Big Numbers- Skenes needs something to stay in the spotlight and that something is big numbers. Skenes is a historically great pitcher by advanced stats standards, but collectors don’t respond to those stats for pitchers yet outside of WAR. Even then, it’s not as if collectors go clamoring for the pitcher with the highest WAR instinctively. For pitchers, it is still all about the obvious stats of strikeouts, ERA, and wins. Skenes won’t have high career counting stats so he needs to regularly have 10+ strikeout games (preferably higher) to keep the buzz strong.
A 300-strikeout season would certainly do the trick. Skenes is going to have a hard time getting enough innings for that early on so a stellar ERA along with a high K-rate are the numbers Skenes will need to stay popular in the hobby. Jacob deGrom at his peak is the blueprint.
3. Be the Unquestioned Best- The league has some good youngish pitchers. Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Blake Snell, Sandy Alcantara, and a few others have had success but all are essentially afterthoughts in the hobby. Put another way, there’s not a pitcher under 30 that collectors don’t complain about hitting in insert sets.
If Skenes isn’t clearly better than these players, his hobby value will slowly but surely sink to their level. Since the All-Star break, Skenes has averaged 10.41 Ks per nine innings. That’s good enough to make an All-Star game and get Cy Young attention, but it’s only tied for 14th in the league.
Skenes has pitched well enough since the All-Star game to be considered a top-10 pitcher. The problem is the others clearly on that list (Snell, Sale, Valdez, and Lopez for example) have rookie cards that sell for a fraction of Skenes cards. Skenes is going to have to put up numbers that are markedly better than the other top pitchers to retain premium pricing. Skenes can’t just be a top-five pitcher. He’s got to be the unquestioned ace of the league to maintain current pricing. Put another way, if Skenes isn’t the clear #1 fantasy starter, he won’t sustain current pricing. Peak deGrom is the way for him to keep his card prices high.
4. Cy Young Awards- This is the easiest way for Skenes to keep his hobby value. If he can rattle off two or three Cy Youngs in his first five years, he’ll cement his place in the hobby and it will be hard to shake him off that perch. His numbers won’t be eye-popping next to pitchers from years past so he needs some hardware. Cy Youngs are the obvious target. Skenes is good enough that he could sneak into the MVP conversation which would help his value.
5. World Series Glory- It’s hard to picture the Pirates making the postseason, but Skenes could definitely benefit from some high-stakes wins. Postseason performance matters the least in baseball, but a lack of postseason success follows players around like an albatross (see Trout and Kershaw). Expectations are low for the Pirates so missing the playoffs won’t hurt to bad, but a bad postseason start or two will.
Wrap Up
That’s a lot for Skenes to live up to. I sincerely hope he does as it would be a blast to watch and the hobby is better when there are hobby-relevant pitchers.