What Baseball Cards Am I Buying?

Ask anyone whose cards they want to stock up on and you are met with prevarication, hemming and hawing, and outright lying. None of that here. I’m going to walk through my thinking process to get my list of guys to target this offseason. I’m choosing five guys total this year: one HOF-bound superstar, one HOF-bound hobby-dud, one current superstar, one youngster, and one from a special category.

One of my favorite rituals of the baseball season is planning out what players to target for offseason buying while watching the first round of the playoffs. I like getting a handle on things before the postseason colors my perceptions too much, so I always make plans before too many postseason games are played. So, this week I’m giving you a glimpse into my baseball buying thought process.

HOF-Bound Superstars

Mookie Betts- Betts ultimately might do something I thought impossible just a couple of years ago and surpass Mike Trout in career WAR. Betts is dotting the I’s and crossing the t’s on his HOF application, but he’s really jockeying for ranking amongst the all-time greats. I’m just not sure what else he can do to move the needle in the hobby and I think I can pick up his cards next year at roughly the same pricing.  

Clayton Kershaw/Justin Verlander/Max Scherzer- I have the same thoughts about all three. They are the last generation of dominant starting pitchers and I think their status in the hobby will grow as pitchers struggle to put up traditionally big stats. I also think they’ll all get a bump and then decline a bit when they retire and so I can just wait two or three years for better prices.

Mike Trout- Trout is the only HOF-bound superstar that I can see a clear path for a major price increase. Injuries have plagued him, but when healthy he is still a top 10 hitter. If he can stay healthy for half a season, his cards will jump again. As I want Trout cards, I’m taking the opportunity to buy some while I’m happy with the pricing. Trout’s my guy from this category.

2011 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects - #101 - Mike Trout

Possibly HOF-Bound but Hobby Duds

All three of these guys are on their way to the HOF if they keep on keeping on. All three are pretty much afterthoughts in the hobby as although they are WAR machines, they don’t garner headlines. I think one of them will break out at some point, in the hobby that is. They are already great on the field. Previous guys I’ve targeted here include Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt.

Jose Ramirez- Ramirez has quietly been a top five player for the last eight years. I thought he might finally get noticed when he knocked out Tim Anderson, but collectors went right back to ignoring him. He almost had a 40/40 season but came up one homer short, but even if he had being outshone by Ohtani’s 50/50 would have been par for the course for Ramirez.

He’s got two paths to greater hobby relevance: he can win MVPs (possible) or he can stay with Cleveland and retire with them. The hobby loves players who stick with one team. I think that is likely, but not going to impact his pricing for another three years or so. Barring a postseason run, I think I can hold off on Ramirez especially as I snagged a nice J.Ram Finest auto rookie recently.

Carlos Correa- Correa has been on my offseason buy list before so he misses the cut this year. I think his skill set just doesn’t translate to hobby greatness even if he makes the HOF. His failed physicals also still create a level of uncertainty I’d like to avoid. He’s also got the hardest path to the HOF as his stat sheet still needs a lot of filling out so no dice for Correa this year.

Francisco Lindor- Lindor got shoved into the bust pile after his first year with the Mets under his giant contract. That was completely unfair, and he’s been amazing since, but the hobby hasn’t caught up to that. I think they will soon and so Lindor is easily my guy from this category.

2015 Topps Heritage '51 - Autographs #H51A-FL - Francisco Lindor /250

Current Superstars

Juan Soto- Soto is a baseball freak as is made clear by Statcast’s bat track data. Soto is in the top 20 in both average swing speed and percentage of squared-up contact. Only one other player in that majors can say the same, Shohei Ohtani. The only knock is that his cards have already gone up quite a bit this year and he’ll likely see a bump when he signs a contract. If I was choosing one player to build a team around, it’s Soto, but his card values have me hunting for bigger bargains.

Ronald Acuna Jr.- As a Braves fan, this makes the most sense. Stock up on the superstar while his prices are down due to injury. The one nagging thought I keep coming back to is that Acuna was playing fairly poorly before being injured. I’m going to regret it, but between the poor play and second ACL surgery I just think Acuna has too much risk.  

Gunnar Henderson- I’m considering Henderson here instead of Witt as I think Witt’s pricing is a smidge high. Henderson’s pricing has cooled somewhat which is enticing for a young slugger that just put up a 9 WAR season. Heck, it’s more than enticing, it’s exactly what I look for when choosing stars to buy, great performances, and pricing that hasn’t caught up or responded.

Henderson’s my choice here and it doesn’t hurt that he’s out of the playoffs. It’s also a bit telling that I place Witt and Henderson here instead of in the youngsters category. Those two are superstars already.

2023 Topps Update Series - [Base] - Mother's Day Hot Pink #US18 - Rookie Debut - Gunnar Henderson /50

Youngsters/Sleepers

This used to be my favorite category of players to target, but with the decline in card prices for superstars I find myself spending way less time hunting these guys. The caliber of players I’m considering hobby sleepers has also gone way up.  No more slumming it picking up Alejandro Kirk cards.

Riley Greene- I messed up and am writing this during the 8th inning of the Tigers game and I’m trying not to let that sway me. Greene was my runner-up choice in this category last year (congrats Michael Harris) and I ended up picking up a lot of his cards anyway. In a vacuum, I think I’d choose Greene, but I think I’m happy with the Greene cards I have already.

Corbin Carroll- I considered him here last year, but I thought he was priced too high to choose. His prices have cratered after an abysmal first half of the season and that’s no longer the case. As bad as he was in the first half, he’s been equally as great in the second. He’s got clear MVP-level talent, and I love his current pricing so Carroll is my youngster.

Jackson Chourio/Elly De La Cruz- Both are tempting, especially Chourio IMO, but both have a lot of hype still baked into their pricing. I’m choosing Carroll but will pick up either of these guys as well if the price is right this offseason, I just doubt that the price ever will be right.   

2019 Bowman Draft - Gold #BD-125 - Corbin Carroll /50

Special Category

Shohei Ohtani gets his own category until I decide otherwise. Unsurprisingly, he is my pick for his own category. His pricing went nuclear briefly after hitting 50, but it is returning to earth and still only up 25% on the season according to Card Ladder data.

2018 Topps Stadium Club - Instavision - Red #I-SO - Shohei Ohtani /50

Wrap Up

There you have it. Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, and Shohei Ohtani are the guys I’m targeting this offseason. Thanks for indulging my thought process. Who are you all hunting? Let me know in the comments.