Buy the Dip?
The SCN Facebook group is full of posts denigrating the slow starts of Jackson Chourio and Jackson Holiday. The names of past busts are mentioned repeatedly almost as a spell against cardboard doom or in a fit of schadenfreude. Chourio and Holiday certainly aren’t the first hyped prospects to struggle with their first tase of MLB pitching and they won’t be the last. It’s far too early to add them to our list of cautionary tales though as many are doing.
In fact, early struggles and subsequent card price declines make for a great buying window. Last year Gunnar Henderson looked lost early before turning things around. The year before saw both Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez play horribly before turning into All-Star hitters. Early struggles help burn off the hype surrounding a prospect making buying their cards a more reasonable exercise. That said, the cautionary tales list is ever-growing and of the five guys mentioned below the odds are that at least three of them will end up on it and most likely four of them.
These are the five players that didn’t look so great in their debuts that I think are worth a second look while their pricing is down a bit. It’s possible all of these guys flop, but I’m looking at this group to pick a winner going forward.
The List
1. Jackson Holiday- I wrote this article on Monday and had to rewrite this section completely after Holiday’s call-up and subsequent grand slam. That said, one game doesn’t change much of my original analysis that Holiday is still one of the top five prospects in baseball and that the slow start provided a good buying opportunity. I do think the window might be shorter than I originally thought and is closing fast. He is young and I expect there to be several peaks and valleys for him over the next two years. Any buying I’ll do I’ll try to time to the valleys.
2. Jackson Chourio- Chourio is the next most likely rebound guy in large part because he has already improved greatly. Since June 1, he has a .312 average, an .882 OPS, and a stellar 144 wRC+. He’s already performed at an All-Star level for two months. The slow start caused his cards to dip substantially with PSA 10 Bowman Chrome Auto dropping all the way to $300. They’ve moved back closer to $450. That is way off the $800+ it fetched preseason but it still is a substantial discount as he is now performing as advertised.
3. Colt Keith- Keith is probably the least-heralded of the players on this list but he’s been on top prospect lists and has been a target for many a Bowman collectors. Keith was one of the absolute worst hitters in the league at the start of the year. Last month he was one of its best with an OPS over 1.000 and seven homers. It’s an amazing turnaround and the kind of thing you see with players under 25. The 22-year-old is playing incredibly well right now and is going under the radar. Another month like July, and he’ll be on every collector's radar though.
4. Wyatt Langford- Langford was supposed to be the big draw for Topps Series 2. Instead, he’s been largely forgettable and Topps Series 2 was forgotten in favor of the newer Topps Chrome. I think Langford also is getting lumped in with the disappointing Evan Carter causing his hobby value to drop more than his performance suggests they should. A 22-year-old getting his OPS close to .700 after a slow start with a .250 average is nothing to sneeze at and Langford should still be considered a top rookie and potential superstar.
5. Heliot Ramos- Ramos was heralded and then forgotten about and after a slow start is off most collector’s radar. He had a great June and showed why he was once a highly regarded prospect. He is 24 already which given the fact that he’s had time to fall out of favor as a prospect makes sense. That means he has a shorter time where he can struggle without it destroying his hobby value. His teammate, Luis Matos, is another hyped underperformer that it might be worth kicking the tires on. I’m not big on either, but they fit the profile.
Wrap Up
I like all five guys on this list, but in full disclosure, I often talk myself into buying cards when writing this column and this week I talked myself into buying Chourio cards.