Early Season Baseball heroes
I love early-season baseball. Each year brings changes with new heroes and busts, and I love checking box scores, stat pages, and watching early games to get a handle on those changes. Many players are off to a fast start. Others are wishing it were still Spring Training. The trick is to figure out which starts indicate a change in production and which ones are just the result of the ups and downs of a long season.
Knowing what players are hot is fine and dandy. We care about the cards, though, so let’s check out how these early successes are being received in the card market for five of the players off to a fast start and likely to continue. This week is for optimism. Next week, we’ll check in with the poor performers.
5 Fast Starts
Corbin Carroll looks to be the MVP-caliber player collectors thought he was in 2023. He’s crushing the ball early this season, and the only hole in his game so far is a surprising lack of stolen bases, which will inevitably come. Regardless of your hitting metric of choice, Carroll is one of the top hitters in the game early this season.
Collectors have already noticed, and his Card Ladder Index is up an impressive 14% since Opening Day. He’s becoming the undisputed face of the Diamondbacks and looks like a real contender for the best rookie of 2023, giving Gunnar Henderson some serious competition. Many had written him off, and it is nice to see him rebound.
Kyle Tucker has been on breakout lists for the past few years. It looks like he is finally going to live up to expectations. He’s off to a great start with the Cubs and looks like he is in for a career year. A 30-30 season is easily in play, and Tucker could flirt with 40 homers if he keeps swinging the bat like he is right now.
Tucker is off to a great start, but the trade to the Cubs also improves his hobby standing. He wasn’t involved in the Trashtros scandal, but the stench hurt his hobby potential somewhat. His cards have increased in value a bit, but what stands out to me is the volume of Tucker cards being sold compared to before he swapped teams.
Pete Alonso had a horrible offseason as his contract negotiation caused many to question his long-term value causing his cards to go ice cold. A couple of weeks of amazing hitting have wiped out the decrease in Alonso pricing. He is set to have a massive year if things break right for the Mets.
His long-term value, like every player, is tied to his odds of getting into the HOF. His path there is much clearer than most: 500 homers and he’s in, 499 and he’s out. A lot of collectors doubt his chances, which keeps a low ceiling on his prices. He’ll need a historic season to move values substantially.
Jackson Merril signed a long-term deal and has just skipped right over that sophomore slump. Merill was performing like a top 10 hitter before landing on the IL a couple of days ago. It looks like that was a precautionary move, but hamstring injuries have a tendency to either be nothing or linger for months. It’s too early to know which path he’s on.
What’s clear is that Merrill has moved past the flash-in-the-pan stage of young phenoms and moved on to bona fide star-in-the-making status. His cards jumped close to 14% since Opening Day. It’s worth watching to see if they’ll dip back a bit with the injury to create a nice buying window. My guess is everyone else is thinking the same thing and said window won’t materialize.
Jackson Chourio struck out five times in his first game, and some collectors reacted like the sky was falling. It didn’t, and Chourio is right back to looking like a superstar. The 21-year-old is in the top 20 in all of MLB for OPS and has a strong .315 average, even with the awful first game. He’s ahead of schedule and is capable of getting MVP votes this season.
Chourio’s cards dipped for all of one day after the five-strikeout day. They have since shot up 10%, and with Merrill and Langford sidelined with injury, he’s likely to get more hobby love over the next couple of weeks.
Wrap Up
It’s worth noting that all of the major rookies from 2024 are off to great or solid starts, and even a few less-heralded 204 rookies are vying to make names for themselves in the hobby. De La Cruz, Langford, Chourio, Merrill, and Skenes headline a stellar class, but Manzardo and Soderstrom are helping to add value to 2024 products. Caminero isn’t producing, but he’s swinging the bat harder than anyone else in MLB and could go on a tear if his contact improves. 2024 wax is already expensive, but there are deals occasionally, and this might be the deepest class from a hobby standpoint since the amazing 2018.
It can’t be overstated how long the season is and how things change. Devers has gone from a bust to looking great in just two weeks, and similar swings will happen many times throughout the season. Still, it’s fun to watch the early games and dream of how the season will unfold, well as long as I don’t think about the Braves at least.