Baseball Overreaction

Baseball is back and it is time to start evaluating how players are doing in the 2024 season. It’s way too early to make solid conclusions, but that’s never stopped anyone from forming an opinion and the market is already hopping. Let’s check out how the hobby has reacted to the early season performances of six players, three good and three not-so-good. Three up, three down. 

I like to think of a lot of things in terms of Goldilocks and those pesky three bears. Is it too hot, too cold, or just right? I’m going to give each player I look at the Goldilock’s treatment and decide if the hobby’s response is too hot, too cold, or in a few cases, just right. It’s wild to think that just a handful of games can move the market much, but we’ll soon see that it does.

Three Up

Spencer Steer- Steer is doing all he can to get hobby attention. I’ve been ignoring and I still am, but I’m finally starting to wonder if that’s a horrible idea.  He’s still overshadowed by the Reds’ other young stars which means collectors still have time to jump on board. His 171 OPS+ will surely come down, but it’s easy to envision a 30-homer season with a 130 OPS+. That tends to be the floor expectations for hobby superstars. 

Three Bears- The big knock on Steer is his age and, as mentioned, the fact that he’s overshadowed by some other Reds prospects. I think many collectors viewed last year as a fluky success and were expecting Steer to turn more into a utility player constantly searching for at-bats instead of becoming the engine driving the team. The window to pick Steer up is closing fast. His Topps Chrome RC Autos have gone from $15 to $35 and more impressively the volume of sales looks more like those of a superstar. I’m still not sold on him with his age, so I’ll say the hobby has gotten this one just right in correcting his undervalued pricing, but not going too far. 

Bobby Witt Jr.- Witt has had a whale of a 2024 and he looks like the MVP-contender we were promised. He’s crushing the ball and his advanced stats suggest this is his new normal. He’s second in getting the barrell on the ball and third in average exit velocity. In other words, he is crushing the ball. The crazy thing is that his expected stats are even better. He’s actually been unlucky this year so far. I’m expecting a monster year barring injuries.

Three Bears- Witt Jr. was hot coming into the season and prices kept bumping up as the season neared. His PSA 10 Topps Update SP went from $200 to $250 since the season started and has a high sale of $305. I think the market is actually too cold as I think this is Witt Jr.’s breakout year and that he’ll continue to gain hobby steam throughout the year.

Juan Soto- Soto sometimes feels like a veteran who is chasing one last ring instead of the young superstar he is. The fact he is on his third team at the age of 25 helps keep his hobby value somewhat grounded. He’s been on a tear and joins Witt in most of the leaderboards for hard-hit balls. His last two years have been viewed negatively in the hobby, He’s showing more power and has upped the batting average both of which are great for his hobby value. 

Three Bears- Soto’s cards spiked when he got sent to the Yankees. They’ve since leveled off. His 2018 Topps Update US300 RC in PSA 10 grade went for $60-$85 when the Yankees news broke. It is now down to $40-$60. Soto is an OBP machine which doesn’t always translate to hobby-good even it equals baseball great. I think the reaction so far has been a bit cold as a 25-year-old Yankee capable of winning multiple MVPs should be hobby catnip. The uncertainty of if he is staying is keeping the reactions minimal and I think that is reasonable. I’d vote this reaction is just right. 

Mookie Betts- If the season ended today, Betts would likely be the MVP. Betts is playing for position in the all-time rankings at this point and collectors have been slow to embrace him as a Dodger. It looks like the needle is finally starting to move. Card Ladder has his player index actually down from the start of the year, but sales of his key cards is showing an overall increase.

Three Bears- His Bowman Chrome RC in PSA 9 form was going for $20-$40 at the start of the season, but now there are no cheap copies and they are selling for $40. I vote that collectors are far too cold on Betts. I think the hobby has been stuck on underreaction for Betts for so long that he can’t be in any other category. Betts is leading his league in WAR which would be the 4th time he’s accomplished that. Since his debut in 2014, only Mike Trout has managed that more than once (Trout has lead his league twice). The hobby has slept on Betts for forever. I think it finally wakes up. 

Three Down

Julio Rodriguez- J. Rod is bad. Really bad. Like bottom five players who is getting playing time in baseball bad. Choose your favorite stat, but he sucks right now. Yet, I’m not worried. I’ve seen this movie before.

Three Bears- J.Rod has a history of being almost unplayable in March/April. Then he goes on a tear and ends up in the MVP conversation. It could be that’s just how his career will go. His cards have dipped 15% according to the Card Ladder Player Index and there are many sales where the discount is even higher. I think that the reaction is way too hot and collectors need to cool off and enjoy the buying opportunity. 

Ceddanne Rafaela- The Red Sox like him enough to give him a hefty extension. He’s shown flashes of brilliant fielding, yet Rafaela hasn’t shown much in the way of his hitting skills. He’s in the bottom 10 for OPS of qualified players with an OPS of .462. 

Three Bears- Rafaela was a popular rookie sleeper coming into the season and his cards spiked a bit when Series 1 came out. His Topps Gold RC has tumbled to $7 after regularly selling over $20. That’s a harsh drop. I still think the reaction is just right as Rafaela is projected to be a defensive specialist and collectors were overestimating his hitting potential. 

Paul Goldschmidt- He’s 36 and at the age where one seriously has to consider if he is done playing productive baseball. If so, the question then is if he is a first-ballot HOF member or does it take a year or two. I hoped he would have a couple more productive years, but that might not be in the cards. 

Three Bears: His PSA 10 2011 Topps RC is down to $65 from $75 at the start of the season. I think this reaction is just right. He’s not adding to his stats, but he has a strong HOF-caliber career so it’s not like his prices can dip much. I am curious to see if his pricing takes a beating once he retires or if folks start to slowly realize they overlooked a great player. 

Wrap Up

It’s been a wild first bit of the season. There are quite a few other players that have seen major shifts in their card prices. It’s worth checking it out to look for great buying or selling opportunities. Let me know where the hobby has gotten it wrong this year in the comments.