Basketball rebounds
I’m finally wresting my gaze away from baseball to check out basketball for the first time in ages. It looks like others are doing the same as basketball seems to have finally hit the floor of its market correction (or dumpster fire of a crash, take your pick). That’s fairly big news to me, so let’s make sure it’s true before going too crazy.
Basketball got hit the hardest when the bottom fell out of the sports card market, and collectors have been slow to return. I’ve only dabbled by picking up some Amen Thompson cards this past offseason and one Wemby card I just had to have.
Things have changed. The Card Ladder Basketball Index is as high as it has been since the summer of 2023. That means that not only have prices stopped dropping, they’ve started rebounding. Over the last year, the basketball market is up almost 10% according to the index.
After month after tireless month of losses in the basketball market, collectors can finally buy basketball cards without the realistic expectation that they will be worth less in a month.
The market has been trending upward for a time, but slowly and with dips, so it seemed premature to declare that basketball was back. That changed in January when the market started moving upwards more consistently and at a higher rate.
The best indicator to me that the rebound is legit is that players beyond the MJ and LBJ are seeing an uptick in prices even if they aren’t in the news or putting up big numbers. Players like Grant Hill and Blake Griffin aren’t suddenly getting a ton of attention, but their cards are up 8%-10%, like many other players, as the market as a whole is rebounding.
Why is the Market Up?
The odd thing is that I keep seeing articles about the demise of basketball and the NBA’s desperate need for a star. I think much of that is overblown. Still, the increase in basketball card prices can’t reasonably be attributed to basketball’s growing popularity. Something else is going on.
I wondered if fans might be slowly returning to vintage and ignoring the modern market. One might be wary of new stars, but feel safe buying Jordan and Shaq cards. Some of the big stars of this season, Gilgeous-Alexander, Cunningham, and Maxey, have all seen large increases this season that far exceed any vintage gains.
There is a good mix of modern and past stars seeing their card values rise. Collectors are buying all things basketball again. The gains can’t be attributed to a star player taking off or a new hot product making waves.
Maybe it’s just that time of the year. The past couple of years, I’ve tracked cards of star players before, during, and after the NBA Playoffs, and I’ve found that the market for those stars spikes in the month and a half before the postseason starts.
Could the increase in the basketball market disappear with the Playoffs? Sure, but I don’t think it will. Usually, the players who see increases before the Playoffs are stars who are legit contenders. That’s happening, but retired players and players unlikely to be relevant in the Playoffs are also seeing gains. This seems more like the inevitable rebound after the horrific plunge.
Wrap Up
I believe the drop really is over. I might be wrong, but for the first time in several years, I’m thinking the floor has been hit and it’s safe to head back in the basketball waters, or as safe as any sports card market can be. Now, it’s time to figure out which players I want to focus on, which is a fun task as I had all but paused my basketball buying.