Betting on Change
There is no more insidious thought in the hobby than, “just wait until folks realize how great random product x is.” People who entertain such notions often go out and buy a bunch of their ostensibly slighted product and just wait for the world to change to the proper thinking. Then they can reap the profits. Even better, one can feel superior and clever when counting the dough. It happens constantly, but it almost never pays off.
I was prompted to write this week’s article when I sat looking at my horde of Topps Brooklyn autos (a personal favorite) whilst thinking that someday folks would come around on them and their prices would increase. Foolish me. Luckily, I realized I was the victim of excessively optimistic daydreaming. I learned ages ago that betting on change in the hobby, especially change based on a sudden realization of the qualities of a previously hidden gem, is a fool’s errand. I know this and I still almost fell into the trap.
Hobby Momentum
Hobby momentum is something I’ve mentioned before, but it is worth discussing again. Things tend to stay the same and change only comes with great effort or major events. Momentum is important for any trend, but I think momentum is harder to change in the hobby than one might think. Sports card collectors are an ornery cussed lot that are loath to admit that they are wrong. Simply put, change requires too many bruised egos to be common in the hobby.
There are some releases that see the false hope of changing opinions take centerstage on a yearly basis. The return of Topps Stadium Club means it is time for the annual, “Stadium Club is undervalued” posts. The same happens for Panini Mosaic, Topps Brooklyn, and a few others without fail. Every year collectors who “really get it” glom on to these releases and wait for the masses to recognize their superior judgment. It doesn’t help that the new victims of this thinking are welcomed effusively by the fans already hooked by said product. They praise the neophytes for their great knowledge and discernment, but one wonders how many really just view the new blood as potential consumers for their beloved product or worse, as potential folks to dump their failed investments on.
I’m not saying don’t buy underappreciated favorites. I will still buy a bunch of Topps Brooklyn autos after all. I’m treading on Bachelor territory, but just make sure you are buying them for the right reasons. Buying because you like them, good. Buying because folks will realize you were right and prices will jump, not so good. Niche products have a place in the hobby, their niche. Expecting a niche product to get widespread approval is the problem.
The Player Exception
While I try to eschew buying products hoping for opinion changes, I think that there is a spot for this type of speculation with individual players. I would caution that it only really works for young players. It makes sense that young players can produce better than expected causing collectors to value their cards more. With older players, we are talking about changing perceptions and not production. It does happen and the one exception for older players is the rare player who seemed destined to not make the HOF who miraculously gets chosen. Fred McGriff recently saw gains after he was chosen for the HOF unexpectedly which caused a shift in how collectors perceived McGriff. This is the exception though and also goes to show that there is a rational reason why folks speculate on younger players more than veterans.
Wrap-Up and What’s Making Me Happy in the Hobby This Week
What product are you waiting for the hobby world to suddenly love and appreciate? Let me know in the comments. Also, I’m going to start including a new section to the wrap up about what’s making me happy in the hobby this week. I did these on the By the Numbers show for the Card Shop Live and I wanted somewhere for them to go. I’ll note that these are not advertisements but are things that genuinely make me happy in the hobby.
This week’s happiness generator is Pro Mold one-touches. It sounds like an ad, but I promise that Pro Mold has no clue who I am. I’ve been off one-touches as they take up a ton of space, but I really hate the look of top loaders for thick cards. They just age poorly. I snagged some Pro Mold one touches and they are a game changer for thick cards. They’ve made me appreciate my cards more. Outside of providing a makeover for my collection, I really love the fact that the holders allow for penny sleeves, but the big surprise was that Pro Mold’s penny sleeves are the best I’ve ever had for thick cards. Highly recommended.