Bowman Check-In
Topps unleased 2024 Bowman into the world last week and it will likely take a month or so for the frenzy to subside. While Bowman gives us a new crop of prospects to clamor for, the players from the 2024 set and older ones are busy on the field trying to work their way to the big leagues.
A key part of prospecting that gets overlooked is that you have to check to see how the players are actually performing. It’s early, but it’s not too early to peek in and see how some of the big-name prospects in the hobby are faring and maybe even find a couple of new prospects to chase.
Looking Good
James Wood (Washington AAA)- Wood is on fire in the hobby and he’s on fire at the plate too. It really is just a matter of time now until he gets the call to the big leagues. The Nationals don’t have any real hurry to move him up though as they are still in rebuilding mode. Things have been bleak for the Nats and it’s fun to think of a lineup anchored by Wood, Abrams, and House after a few seasons of tanking. Wood is making it hard to wait as he is obliterating AAA pitching right now and showing the power/speed combo that foretells 30/30 or even 40/40 seasons to come.
Wood’s Bowman Chrome Auto isn’t cheap with raw copies going for $150 and PSA Gem Mint 10s getting $450. His prices haven’t really moved though as they’ve been high for a while. This is probably the last window to buy in before he gets a call-up bump but we’ve also seen those bumps be short-lived so only buy if you feel the price is good and not out of FOMO.
Carter Jensen (Kansas City A+)- Jensen is the perfect example of why you can’t sleep on some of the Bowman players that don’t immediately set the cardboard world ablaze. Jensen is only 20 and is announcing himself to the world this year in a big way. He’s 5th in OPS for players under 20 in all of the minors. The players directly above him are some of the hobby’s premier prospects like Jackson Holiday and Aidan Miller. The fact he is doing this against high A pitching draws my attention in a big way.
Jensen’s cards were cheap at the start of the year. His Bowman Chrome Autos could be had for under $10. He’s had a couple of higher sales indicating that his market might be moving on up. Despite his hot start, his cards are still lukewarm at best with a BCA refractor going for under $20 this week. 20-year-olds that destroy high-A pitching normally get more attention and I’m eager to see what happens as Jensen moves up the prospect rankings.
Jaison Chourio (Cleveland A)- Chourio is first overall amongst 19-year-olds in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) which is impressive. He’s showing a great eye and is walking more than he is striking out and man I love to see that in young players. It is worth wondering if having Jackson in the hobby gives Jaison’s cards an easier or tougher path in gaining value. I worry that the hobby has long been skeptical of younger brothers. Perhaps with good reason. Ozzie, Dom, Craig, take your pick. The hobby is full of siblings who just didn’t quite rise to that superstar level. On the other hand, everyone knows the name Chourio.
Chourio’s cards have actually dipped a bit with his strong performance and one can’t help but wonder if he is being punished for Jackson’s performance. A PSA 10 BCA Chourio averaged $95 a month ago and now that is $85.
Aidan Miller (Philadelphia A)- Millers got a .337/.411/.578 slash line in A ball so far this year. It’s always interesting to see how teams handle youngsters that crush A-ball pitching. Do they let them build confidence or do they push them on to the much tougher pitching of the higher leagues? Miller is exciting and one I’ll pay close attention too looking for dips in prices or just discounts in general.
Miller is one of the jewels of 2024 Bowman and his cards have come out hot so no bargains for me. There were a couple of really lucky (for the buyer) early sales under $100 (super jealous). His base BCA has now settled in at $125. That $100 threshold is tough to crack for base BCA cards and it indicates Miller is already considered one of the game’s elite prospects.
Trending in the Wrong Direction
It’s not all sunshine and cards skyrocketing. I don’t want to harp too much on the negative side of things. One does have to at least acknowledge it though.
Ethan Salas (San Diego A+)- Salas has been bad. He’s also 17 and hitting in High A ball. It’s worth noting the bad stats for sure. A .188 average and .563 OPS don’t cut it at any level. Still,17 years old in High A. He can take five years to develop and will still be a precocious 22-year-old. Bad start to 2024, but no worries.
Roman Anthony (Boston AA) and Druw Jones (Arizona A)- These two heralded prospects I’m lumping together because they have the same problem: they strike out way too dang much. Both of them are striking out over 35% of the time. The good news is that their lack of production has an obvious source and is fixable. We’ve seen prospects reduce their strikeout rates and then excel. We’ve also seen some whose strikeout rates never change. If you are buying Anthony or Jones, you have to hope they are in the former camp.
Wrap Up
It’s still very early in the MiLB season and prospecting has turned into a year-round ga