Star QBs’ Hobby Woes: Did Tom Brady Kill Football Cards?
It’s a quarterbacks league they say. Only buy star quarterbacks they say. Well, the stars have been producing decently on the field, but only the quarterbacks on the fringe of hobby relevance have seen substantial gains in card prices this year. Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield have seen gains, but stars like Josh Allen, Joe Burrows, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert have seen their cards trending downward over the last three months. Even Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have only had modest gains.
So, the question this week is where are all the gains for the star quarterbacks? Where are the crazy spikes after big wins? Let’s figure out what’s going on. Hopefully, by the end of this I’ll have a better handle on my football card buying plans.
Overall Market
If the market is crashing, even star quarterbacks see a dip. The obvious reason the stars haven’t seen gains is that the market is down as a whole. The market hasn’t been crashing that badly in the last three months though. Card Ladder’s Football Index is down 4% overall during that time, but that hasn’t prevented second-tier quarterbacks form seeing large gains. The slightly cold market is certainly part of the equation. It’s not the whole answer though.
Play
Maybe the stars haven’t been playing good enough. None of them are setting records this year for sure. Still, Allen, Burrows, Herbert, Mahomes, Hurts, and Jackson all have played well and only Burrows has a losing record.
Josh Allen, for example, has very quietly played himself into the frontrunner position for the NFL MVP award. Collectors seem unimpressed and his cards have actually dipped in the last three months. Mahomes won last year’s Super Bowl and was undefeated until last week but his cards have barely ticked up. Poor play isn’t the answer.
Rookie Revolution
Collecting dollars flock to rookies and this year has been exceptionally strong with multiple quarterbacks that look like they can be stars. I absolutely do think that people are too busy chasing Daniels to notice deals on Josh Allen or Justin Herbert cards. More money spent on rookies brings veteran discounts.
Super Bowl, MVP, or Records
It may not be fair, but until they win a Super Bowl, there is a ceiling on veteran quarterbacks’ hobby value. Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrows are all big names in the hobby for sure. They just will be considered in a lower tier than the star quarterbacks with Super Bowl wins until they win their own.
Once a quarterback is established in the hobby, it’s hard for their position in the hobby to change unless they win a Super Bowl, an MVP, or set a record. Collectors might change their opinions of rookies, but they seldom do for veteran star quarterbacks. This suggests one shouldn’t expect sharp jumps in their card prices during the regular season.
Other Positions
Maybe collectors are too busy chasing running backs or receivers? Nope. Not that. Stop laughing. It was at least worth thinking about. Barely.
Fantasy Football
I’ve seen the argument that collectors pay more attention to fantasy stats than real stats. Jalen Hurts is a fantasy star and has seen his cards crater in value since his Super Bowl appearance despite strong stats, fantasy dominance, and overall strong record. If fantasy football mattered for card value, Hurts would be much more popular.
Tom Brady/GOAT Think
Tom Brady broke football cards. Even stars like Mahomes can look like dollar-box fodder in the face of Brady’s career. In the past, collectors would chase multiple quarterbacks and have debates over who was the best. Brady is the undeniable answer now and the hobby is poorer for it. He’s caused collectors to have unrealistic expectations and to care less about “other” star quarterbacks.
As Brady’s dominance became clear, demand for Manning, Brees, Favre, Elway, Montana, and Marino cards dipped. The hobby used to be chock full of star quarterbacks. It still is. Collectors now are all about GOAT Think though. If a player isn’t the GOAT, they aren’t worth chasing. It means that a player’s card values are pretty much capped at their rookie levels unless they do something to get into the current GOAT debate.
GOAT or Die is the mantra of many new collectors and I think that is reflected in the lack of movement in the prices of cards for star quarterbacks who are playing very well currently. It’s just hard to get excited for quarterbacks compared to Drew Brees after checking out the price of Brees rookies and autos.
Wrap Up
The end result is I’m rethinking of how I buy football cards. Normally, I look for offseason bargains and ignore football cards completely during the season. I’m now going to start looking for bargains of star quarterbacks during the season as well. One of my collecting goals next year is developing a card buying/selling calendar using some revamped thinking. Also, it’s getting close to the end of the year which means the prestigious Dudley Hobby Awards are almost here. Nominate your favorite 2024 cards, products, inserts, players, hobby stories, etc… in the comments below.