Parallel Increases
“Stop buying base and only buy parallels,” has been the mantra of many an influencer and hobby
prognosticator in the past couple of years. I’ve always had a contrarian streak and like to pick apart
prevailing wisdom. It’s a bit of an irritating habit, but it’s useful for writing about sports cards. So, this
week I want to test this strategy to see if it actually makes sense or if it is just people parroting mindless
platitudes.
The Numbers
To examine this, I need some data. I looked at the graded population of a key Panini Prizm rookie for the
years 2018-2023 and a key Topps rookie for the same years. I also looked at how many parallels of each
had been graded. I included autographed and image variations as parallel cards but the numbers don’t
change much if they are omitted.
Table 1: Football Base and Parallel Graded Population
Graded Base Cards Graded Parallels
2018 Josh Allen Prizm 6123 2478
2019 Daniel Jones Prizm 5035 2653
2020 Justin Herbert Prizm 15496 14382
2021 Trevor Lawrence Prizm 4392 11802
2022 Brock Purdy Prizm 6742 5792
2023 C.J. Stroud 12718 18185
With Stroud having more than double Josh Allen’s graded base pop, I think it is still safe to conclude that
the print runs for base cards is up, but to me the most puzzling numbers here are the relatively low print
runs for graded base Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy cards. Some of this is likely due to lower prices
lowering the incentives to grade base cards. The economics of the card market of 2020 and early 2021
ensure that the base cards from 2019-2020 will remain some of the most graded ever. The Lawrence
numbers also might be low due to the quality control being bad and many base cards having poor
centering that year.
I also wonder if the print run for the Brock Purdy card is artificially low due to the product having an
overall lower print run as it was delayed heavily due to Covid. The print run is also likely low due to the
poor draft class (in hobby terms) that year causing Panini to slow down the presses. Regardless of the
reason, the lower parallel total suggests an overall lower print run that is interesting.
We expected base cards to be up so no big surprise there other than the much lower-than-expected
numbers for Lawrence and Purdy. The parallels are where things get shocking. Stroud has more graded
parallels than graded base cards and has over FIVE times as many graded parallels as Josh Allen despite
the product just being a little over six months old. That’s a stunning increase. Let’s see if this is just a
Panini issue or if it is industry-wide.
Table 2: Baseball Base and Parallel Graded Population
Graded Base Cards Graded Parallels
2018 Topps Shohei Ohtani 700 16572 1432
2019 Topps Fernando Tatis 34778 1709
2020 Topps Bo Bichette 30949 2143
2021 Topps Ryan Mountcastle 3412 364
2022 Topps Julio Rodriguez US 44 9519 3089
2023 Topps Gunnar Henderson 3741 1436
2024 Topps Elly De La Cruz 6466 2105
Topps, like Panini, has seen a large increase in base card print run even if it is not obvious from this
chart. The print runs for Series 1 are easy enough to estimate using pack odds with numbers around a
million per card now. The total graded volume is down as increased grading costs, decreased premiums
for graded modern cards, and lower raw card prices make it less economically prudent to grade base
cards.
The story of parallel production is markedly different. Topps has held parallel production fairly low
although they have added a few higher print run ones in recent years. This tracks with the irritation
many have at Flagship boxes containing far fewer parallels than they used to. That is what one would
expect with increased overall print runs while holding parallel production reasonably low.
Making Sense of the Companies
Topps has settled into a pattern of slow parallel increases. The base card print run has increased greatly
and at times rapidly, but the parallel numbers have increased at a much slower methodical pace. It’s
what you would expect from a company looking to grow a healthy market. Topps could put a parallel in
every pack, but that would sap the value.
Panini, on the other hand, has aggressively ramped up parallel production. It is tempting to blame this
on them simply extracting as much cash from collectors on their way out the door, but the biggest
increase in parallel production occurred in 2020 when Panini fully expected to be in control of the
lucrative football card market indefinitely. Panini, in an attempt to have their cake and eat it too,
increased parallel production to give collectors what they wanted. I think it is a shortsighted and
unsustainable move. It just wasn’t caused by them losing their licenses.
What to Do
So, time to give up on buying parallels I guess. Not so fast. I still think the idea to go after parallels makes
sense but collectors need to be more selective in which parallels they chase. For me, that doesn’t mean
automatically chasing the rarest. Instead, like many collectors, I look for rarity AND which ones are in
high demand. Silver Prizms will never be the rarest parallel, but they will continue to outsell their scarcer
counterparts.
One thing I do think needs to happen is that the “buy parallel” crowd needs to take a step back and
realize they are in the same boat as those buying base cards. Instead of calling the base collectors rubes
because the base card population has skyrocketed, it would behoove them to examine the overall
parallel numbers with as much vigor. We are not in Junk Wax 2.0. The market is much larger than it was
six years ago. It can handle a doubling of print runs. I’m not sure it can handle a five times increase like
we’ve seen with Stroud and Wemby parallels. The end result I think will be a market where a few
popular parallels will have value and the rest will be considered akin to base cards.
Wrap-Up
I’ve given the advice to focus on parallels to people before. I’ve been that guy. Simply put, I don’t think I
will again without offering some more specifics.