MLB Preview: West Divisions
Baseball time! It’s not quite Opening Day, but Spring Training is in full swing and collectors are starting to get actual gameplay to evaluate. I like to have a good grasp on the league at least at the start of the season and so each year I run through the league looking for the biggest hobby storylines on each team.
This is not a list of the best players on each team. Rather, it is just a look at one player on each team that is of interest specifically to the hobby this year. For that reason, most of these players are younger as older established stars have to do something truly spectacular to move the hobby needle. Let’s start out west as they normally get covered last. Today, it’s off to the front of the line for our Western divisions in an attempt to mitigate that East Coast bias. The Central and Eastern divisions will get their turns in a week or two.
AL West
California Angels- Ohtani is gone. Trout is the other hobby stalwart on the roster. Writing about Trout’s place in the hobby is overdone though and really nothing is left to say other than to speculate on injuries. The other player who can turn a collector’s head is Zach Neto. The shortstop tore through MiLB before finding things more difficult at the MLB level. Neto is a scrappy guy who has the makings of a fan-favorite. He also was a two-way player and is apparently a decent pitcher. He’s a hitter only now and the Angels will need a breakout year from him to avoid having a fire sale.
Houston Astros- Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are still getting overlooked due to the Trashtros scandal despite not being on the team at the time. Alvarez has a solid foothold in the hobby, but Tucker is still largely unheralded. His Bowman Chrome Auto goes for around $100. He’s entering his prime and if he keeps putting up seasons like his last three, then the hobby will take notice sooner or later. On the other hand, he is starting to look a lot like Trae Turner in that he is big in fantasy baseball circles but an afterthought in the hobby.
Oakland Athletics- The A’s are an embarrassment to the league, but they do have a few young players worth paying attention to in the hobby. Mason Miller, Esteury Ruiz, and Zach Gelof are an interesting core of young talent for the moribund A’s. Gelof is the one most likely to make waves in the hobby as he can produce decent power numbers. He’ll have to hit 35+ homers to get noticed on the A’s. Projection models don’t like his chances.
Seattle Mariners- Jonatan Clase hit 20 home runs last year to go with his 79!!! stolen bases in the minors. Speed and defense will be his forte in the bigs. The question is when he gets a full-time shot in the majors with regular playing time. He fits well into the modern hobby if he can up his power a smidge. Given his age, that’s well within the realm of possibility. He’s likely another year away from being a big name in the hobby. Still, there is a path for him to become a star this season if he gets the playing time.
Texas Rangers- Last year I predicted Corey Seager cards would continue their downward slide. Instead, he led the Rangers to a World Series title while resurrecting his chances at making the HOF. I’m sold. I’ve seen the error of my ways and I think Seager will be great again in 2024. Seager’s cards are still reasonably priced. His Bowman Chrome Auto isn’t cheap at around $200, but a variety of rookie year autos can be had for under $100. I can see the window for picking his cards up on the cheap closing quickly if he starts the season like he played last year. His margin of error for making the Hall is very small and collectors need to watch him carefully for signs of decline.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks- It’s surprisingly popular for collectors to predict a downturn for Corbin Carroll. I think most of this is driven by a contrarian streak in the collectorate. It’s not completely out of left field though. Carroll’s production peaked in June and many view that as a sign he’ll flame out. While he wasn’t on an MVP pace, Carroll’s late-season production was solid enough and he looked great in the playoffs. He may have flagged a bit, but he was still very productive. He’s got an even stronger team around him and I think as long as he avoids injury, he will be in a group with Acuna Jr., Witt Jr., and a few other young stars trying to make the 30-30 club the happening spot.
Colorado Rockies- I talked about Ezequiel Tovar in this space last year. He didn’t get to that 20-20 season I thought he might. He looks good in Spring Training so far and I might have just been a year early on him. He’s still incredibly young and he plays in Colorado so predicting a major surge in his home run total seems easy enough. For hobby relevance, he’s going to need a 30-30 season which would be a massive leap forward. I think he’ll get that 20-20 season which won’t be enough to cause a surge in his hobby value. He’s one that I think will play well for four seasons and all of a sudden will wind up on the HOF path with a surprisingly high WAR (think Carlos Correa).
Los Angeles Dodgers- Betts and Freeman haven’t benefitted from playing for the Dodgers in terms of card value and I can’t see major movement for Ohtani without him pitching so the bigger Dodgers stars will likely end the year in the same place they started it. The pitching staff is where things are interesting. Yamamoto is buzzy for sure, but I’m most intrigued by Bobby Miller. He had a solid rookie campaign and is now being given the keys to start on a team expected to win 100 games. Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone are fighting for the 5th starter spot and could be worth a look for sure. Miller has the inside track on a position and is in the best position to become hobby-relevant.
San Diego Padres- I like the Padres to make the playoffs this year as a surprise. To do that, they’ll need massive years from Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., two guys who have detractors in the hobby. Machado is the one I’m more interested in as he’s at the crossroads between joining the HOF or tailing off and landing in the Hall of Good. His numbers are strong enough that he can stay on pace without having an All-Star season, but any sharp drop in production could signal the demise of Machado’s already reduced value in the hobby. If he can put together an MVP season, he could see a nice bounce like Freddie Freeman did a few years ago.
San Francisco Giants- With apologies to Logan Webb, the only player capable of generating hobby buzz this year on the Giants is Marco Luciano. He’s 22 and the hobby loves young players who produce. He’s struggled so far in Spring Training and is looking like he is headed back AAA. It’s not a great sign if the Giants aren’t willing to let him work through things like other teams have done with young superstars. If Luciano stays in the minors, the Giants will be the rare decent baseball team without much hobby appeal.
Wrap Up
Spring Training might be my favorite time of the year for baseball cards. We’ve got baseball to watch, real games on the horizon, and 2024 Flagship to collect. I’ll check in with the Central and Eastern divisions in the next few weeks.
As for what’s making me happy in the hobby this week, it is the Topps Team Colors parallels. I had planned on collecting a lot of Independence Day parallels this year, but once I got a Team Colors card in hand my plans changed. The cards are truly special and the neon effects and logo holofoil set these parallels in a class above the rest of the 2024 Topps ones.
More Nonsense
In case you missed it, John McTaggart explored the problems in the hockey market that come with the hoopla around Connor Bedard. Check it out here.