MLB’s Central Divisions
Baseball season is almost here. It’s time to get a grip on the biggest hobby storylines in 2024. Last week, I looked at the West divisions. This week it is the Central divisions' turn. Importantly, the players highlighted here aren’t necessarily the biggest or best players on their teams. Rather, they are simply players that I am most interested in from a hobby standpoint.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox- The only White Sox fans I know are in a dark place and it’s not even Opening Day. Eloy Jimenez is looking good in Spring Training, but I think the ship has sailed for him in the hobby. Luis Robert is really the only White Sox player of note in the hobby. Robert has fallen mightily since his hobby heyday of 2020. I figured last season would have helped boost him in the hobby, but it frankly did not. Robert needs to either put up MVP-level numbers or get traded to get more hobby love. The good news is that both of those have a decent chance of happening.
Cleveland Guardians- Jose Ramirez is the best player the hobby completely ignores. He’s well on his way to the HOF and he’s within 1 point of Bryce Harper’s WAR. Harper is the same age and has actually played one more season than J.Ram. Ramirez could benefit from an MVP and might need that to avoid being on the Paul Goldschmidt path of being incessantly overlooked.
Detroit Tigers- I don’t get the Spencer Torkelson love. People are hanging a lot of hope on his stellar August. I think he’ll be a very good player with an OPS around .800 which is closer to where he was last July and September. That makes him a player that is hobby-relevant, but just barely. Be sure to watch out for a slow start from Torkelson. He’s one of a handful of youngsters that has shown a proclivity towards mediocrity at the start of the season. The good news is that if he does start slow, there will be bargains to be had.
Kansas City Royals- Bobby Witt Jr. stuff is selling like hotcakes with a steady push upwards in prices. He’s poised to take off even higher and could be one of the top five names in the hobby at the end of the season. I think part of the recent Witt surge comes from his fantasy baseball rankings. Playing in Kansas City he’s going to have to put up some gaudy numbers to get noticed by the masses. I think he does just that and he comes through with a 40/40 season. Witt is one of a dozen young stars vying to become the face of the league and none of them can afford to have even a good season. To stay in that race, greatness is the minimum. Watch for Witt’s cards to dip even if he is playing well. Like with Tork, watch out for a slow start and buying opportunities.
Minnesota Twins- The Twins are quietly one of the most fun teams in the hobby. They’ve got a slew of hobby breakout candidates in Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Joe Ryan. Even better, their cards can all be had for cheap. The most interesting player from a hobby perspective is Carlos Correa though. Correa was waltzing his way to the HOF before his bizarre free agency left him almost unsingable. He is still valued as a borderline future HOF player, but he cannot afford another year like the last one. Correa needs WAR to make his HOF case and I worry that he might have begun his decline and he’ll now be veering off that HOF path. It’s a fairly common fate. Player cruises along to 35-40 WAR and then bupkis. I’m watching for chances to jump off the Correa train if it appears he can’t put 3-4 WAR this year.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs- The Cubs have two phenoms in Imanaga and Crow-Armstrong. I’m playing the odds and going with the hitter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, as being the most hobby-relevant at the end of the year. He’s already a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. His hitting still needs a lot of work to remain relevant in the hobby. I worry his most likely career path is that of Jim Edmonds or Tori Hunter. That’s great for the Cubs, but not that great from a hobby perspective. If he does follow their path, he’ll have a few hobby-relevant years before trailing off. On the other hand, he’s very young and has plenty of time to become an above-average hitter.
Cincinnati Reds- The Reds and the Orioles are fighting to be the most interesting team in the hobby. Both of them could get their own article. Elly is great but enough has been said about him. I’m more intrigued by the future of Matt McClain. Elly will be relevant in the hobby in 2025 barring something massive. McClain could be a star or completely forgotten. I don’t like the fact he’s struggling with abdominal muscle injuries. He’s currently priced just a tad higher than I like on my coinflip guys, but I certainly can’t fault those who have stocked up on him.
Milwaukee Brewers- I’m not big on any Brewer. Sal Frelick has the potential to change my mind in a hurry. Frelick is being overlooked a bit in favor of Elly or the Martian. He’s a phenom in his own right. His biggest skill is his ability to avoid strikeouts while getting on base. He excels at drawing walks and even had a low strikeout rate (16.6%) in his less-than-stellar call-up. Frelick has realistic 20/20 potential with an upside of 25-25 or 30-30 if things bounce just right. He’s going to get on base and he’s going to run. The only real question is the power. That’s a big question as power drives much of the card market.
Pittsburgh Pirates- Oneill Cruz went from hobby hero to near zero in a split second. Injuries are the bane of the sports world and the hobby. All signs point to Cruz being able to bounce back nicely. He’s been on a tear in Spring Training with five home runs already. I’m expecting Cruz to hit a ton of homers this year with some of them being absolute moonshots. The big question is his strikeouts. The lanky player has a prodigiously large strike zone that pitchers will take advantage of. Elly De La Cruz is exciting, but Oneill Cruz was equally as exciting before his injury. I’m excited to see him get a full season to cook.
St. Louis Cardinals- The Cardinals constantly have big-name prospects that constantly fail to develop fully. Still, the hobby loves the Cardinals franchise, and being a Cardinals prospect carries weight in the hobby that being a Pirates prospect just doesn’t. I’m curious to see if Jordan Walker can break out of the prospect-to-platoon player pipeline. There wasn’t much to like about Walker’s 2023. He started mediocre and ended abysmal. The plus side is he’s still only 21 and is showing signs of life in Spring Training so far.
Wrap Up
That’s it for the Central divisions. Next week it is time for the East where I’ll have to work my hardest to tamp down my Braves bias.
As for what’s making me happy in the hobby this week, it is the fact that the market seems to be getting stronger. I’m losing a lot more auctions than I was a few months ago. That’s a great anecdotal sign that the market is rebounding. This is one of the few times when it makes me happy to lose more often.
