NFL: Meh?
The 2023 NFL season has landed with a sickeningly wet thump on the hobby. I’ve seen almost no optimism and very little in terms of people being actually excited about a player. Instead, a malaise has settled into the collectorate and one wonders what it will take to snap us out of our doldrums. With the exception of Mr. Taylor Swift catching TDs, almost every major player seems to be in worse hobby shape than at the start of the season. The question then is if this is just a dud season or if market conditions are just keeping things depressed?
The Dud Season Theory
Injuries, disappointing performances, and unrealistic hobby expectations have all put a dark shadow over the 2023 season. Seemingly just as someone looks poised to break out, they have a horrible stretch of games or get injured. There have been a lot of good offensive performances this year, but even the great ones have their detractors and are less heralded than normal. Maybe there just aren’t any truly great players this year and the hobby realizes this. Dud seasons happen and even dud stretches can take over for a few years.
That said, I think the dud season theory requires too many mental gymnastics. Jalen Hurts is either a Super Bowl contender and the frontrunner for MVP or a huge disappointment based on what argument one is making. The fact remains that there are plenty of strong performances on the offensive side of the ball. Sure there are downsides to everyone, but the same is true every year. Even more importantly, the rookie class is strong with Stroud looking like a real star. The performances so far have been good enough to avoid causing any major market shifts. That means it is time to look at the overall market to better understand the ennui of collecting football cards in 2023.
Football Market
First, the market is down and there are economic conditions that are keeping many leery of a major turnaround any time soon. That was true during the baseball season though and I saw baseball met with considerably more positivity. There absolutely is a level of downturn in the hobby caused by overall market conditions, but I think that other factors are having a negative effect and unfairly getting a pass.
Yes, football cards are still coming out, but the uncertainty over Panini’s future hit a critical state with the NFL’s termination of their contract with Panini. Even if the lawsuit ends in Panini’s favor, everyone has been forced to picture the hobby without Panini in it in the last few weeks. The unintended consequence of this is a downturn in demand for Panini’s product. I’m not sure there is much Panini can do to get the market excited long-term again outside of doing their best to pretend things are normal.
Along with the looming demise of Panini, the burns of the last couple of years' losses have taught collectors some harsh lessons. I can see the market rebounding to previous levels, but the unbridled (and unrealistic) optimism is gone from the market and won’t be coming back quickly. The harshest drops occurred in the basketball and football markets and perhaps it is to be expected that reluctance to get back into these markets will slow their rebound.
The biggest factor stopping the rebound of both football and basketball though is the major and growing gap between wax costs and expected value from wax boxes. Normally, the manufacturer would back off the high prices in order to maximize sales long term, but Panini is motivated to sell as much as it can as quickly as it can in order to make as much as it can before its license expires and to boost their numbers for any merger or acquisition. It’s still exciting to hit a C.J. Stroud card but it is hard to get too excited when the card is only worth 20% of what one paid for the box. The current market means very few boxes are winners and that feeling of winning is necessary in a healthy market.
Wrap Up
The market might be a bowlful of meh currently, but there are still strong performers to get excited about. Enjoy the discounts on some big performers that would otherwise be unaffordable.
