Judging the Health of the Baseball Card Market by Looking at the Card Prices of MLB’s WAR Leaders
When the card market is healthy, cards rise in value with good performances and decline with bad play. When people ask if the market is healthy, the first thing I look at is if the top performers in a league are seeing their card prices plummet. It’s not the only factor in deciding if a market is healthy or not, but it is a good starting point.
With baseball almost over, it’s a good time to check the health of the baseball market. To do so, I’m going to look at most of the top 10 players in terms of WAR and see how their cards fared throughout the year. I’m leaving off Ketel Marte, Jarren Duran, and Matt Chapman as all three are on the very fringes of hobby relevancy. It’s possible that they might get there with a few more seasons like this, but they all have substantial hurdles to hobby glory. If the market is healthy, I expect to see big increases for this group. All of the data here with the exception of Gunnar Henderson’s comes from Card Ladder’s player indices.
Big Winners
1. Bobby Witt Jr.- Witt is the big winner with a 66% jump in his Card Ladder Index. This tracks with what I’ve been seeing as every Witt card I watch ends up selling for over my target price. Witt has cemented himself as the top youngster and looks like he might wind up as the face of the hobby.
2. Aaron Judge- I’m kicking myself for not picking up more Judge cards earlier in the year when I thought he was undervalued. His cards are up 49% and there are no longer deals to be had. You snooze you lose and I slept.
3. Juan Soto- 31% I was way off on my perception here. This article initially was going to be about how Soto had a great year and was getting ignored. Even if folks aren’t talking about him, their wallets clearly are saying that collectors have noticed Soto’s stellar play this year.
Holding Steady
4. Shohei Ohtani- I was down on Ohtani at the beginning of the season as I thought even if he put up MVP-hitting numbers that he would see a decline without the pitching. I still think I was right but a 50/50 season wasn’t something I thought was in the cards. Still, at 9% he’s had a much lower increase than pretty much anyone else would have with a similar season.
5. Francisco Lindor-Lindor continued the quietest march to the HOF this year and was rewarded with 2% bump. His treatment in the hobby reminds me a lot of Freddie Freeman a couple of years ago before a World Series and MVP award. Lindor just needs something to happen for the hobby to focus on him and then people will realize that he’s been a star all along.
6. Gunnar Henderson- -1% Gunnar’s reception is the biggest surprise on here. He’s getting the treatment that I thought Soto was getting. Henderson is young and is fourth in terms of WAR this year so one might expect a better outcome. He’s the victim of absurdly high expectations and pricing and his production dipped for a couple of months. His cards were up when he was at his peak earlier this year so his treatment in the hobby makes some sense.
A Surprising Result
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - -27% Vladito has had a strong comeback season but collectors had had enough after last year. Many did what I did earlier this year and dumped what Guerrero Jr. cards they could as soon as there were signs of life from his bat causing the bottom to fall out of his market. The sell-off and subsequent turnaround provide an interesting buying window for Guerrero believers, but isn’t indicative of market problems in my opinion. There are legitimate reasons for the decline.
Wrap Up
Overall, I’d say the baseball market at least is fairly healthy. Those who stocked up on Witt, Judge, and Soto before the season are certainly pleased with the health of the market. I’ll note that the market is punishing poor performance with Bo Bichette (why is no one talking about how awful his year was) dropping 57%. As far as baseball goes, things are looking fairly normal.