The NBA’s Buying Season
The NBA Finals are in the books, the NBA market is still way down, and the upcoming drafty class might be the worst in years. That means it’s time to go shopping for basketball cards. The time between the end of the Finals and the Christmas games is my buying season for basketball cards. This year, I’m even more excited about NBA buying season as the cards are cheaper than they have been in a while. I’m also overthinking things and expecting NBA singles to do well next year as collectors ignore wax with a subpar draft class incoming.
Every year around this time I look for players I think are undervalued and could be poised to break out next year. Last year, my biggest target was Anthony Edwards. The year before, I targeted Gilgeous-Alexander. Unfortunately, while I’ve been good at picking the right guy to buy, I’ve been very impatient and sold all my SGA cards way too early and almost did the same with Edwards. I also was big on Zion and Trae Young so, my record isn’t spotless. Regardless, this is one of my favorite hobby thought exercises to do each year so without further ado, here’s who I’m considering stocking up on this offseason.
Star Players
Star players can still have wild pricing swings in the NBA. Just check out the journey Luka Doncic’s Silver Prizm went on during the playoffs with the card almost hitting $2000 before dipping back to $1200 now. This means that we don’t need to restrict ourselves to young unproven players. This is also a great place to look for cards to old onto for the long haul.
All-Time Greats- It’s a great time to stock up on Curry, LeBron, and Durant cards. Great players at great prices right now. Not much more to say really. The only downside is these cards are far less likely to see massive gains.
The Bigs- Giannis and Jokic are also both attractive at current pricing, but I worry that their upside is limited due to the hobby’s dislike of big men. I do wonder if the Wemby hype could lead some to appreciate how special what these two have done over the past few years is. Both will likely require an NBA title or another MVP win to see much movement on their cards.
Luka Doncic- For a few days, it looked like Luka was going to assert his position as the top dog in the NBA. Then the Mavericks turned back into a pumpkin. Still, Luka played well and his cards are priced cheaper than they have been since 2019. His Silver Prizm is selling for about the same price as after last season when the Mavs tanked to get a draft pick. Given that he just dragged the Mavs to the Finals, one would expect more of a bump, but this is the card market we live in now. The market is still in a dark place though and Doncic has a likability problem that will put a ceiling on his prices, but we’ve just seen proof of concept that his cards can go nuclear again.
Young with Potential
Jonathan Kuminga- Kuminga is considered by many to be a bust already, but he’s only going into his age 22 season. He’s exactly the kind of player I like buying, young and already somewhat productive on the NBA level. Mild improvements can see him hit 20 ppg and 5 rpg easily. Five assists per game isn’t out of the question with increased minutes. If he hits those marks, he’ll join a very short list of players to average 20, 5, and 5 at the age of 22. The list is peppered with the best players in the league’s history like Michael Jordan, Kobe, and Larry Bird. The worst player on the list is either LaMelo Ball or Brandon Ingram. This is giving Kuminga a lot of credit for something that hasn’t happened yet, but I think with his current situation the odds are in his favor. With his card prices low, I’ll take that bet.
Amen Thompson- His current teammate, Jalen Green, is also intriguing, but I think it is telling that the Rockets are shopping him instead of Amen. Thompson averaged 13.6 ppg and 8.6 rpg over the last twenty games of the season. I think his cards get hurt a but by having a twin playing and his non-traditional path from OTE doesn’t help either. It also creates confusion in the market as Amen Thompson has Topps Chrome autos from OTE in 2021-22 and 2022-23 products. I’m not sure how those cards will eventually be treated by the market if Thompson becomes a star. Thompson is the most interesting young player to me not named Wembanyama. He’s hyper-athletic and versatile and getting lost in the Wemby noise, but I think he’ll demand attention either next year or the year after.
Paolo Banchero- I almost left Paolo off as his market has picked up. He’s also still got a lot of number one pick hype baked into his pricing. Even though I don’t think he’s a bargain, I still think he’s poised to become a superstar soon. He took moribund Orlando to the playoffs with an impressive 47-win season. He looked like the unfinished product he is in the playoffs for sure. He’s got the Team USA experience upcoming which might bump him up a level going into next year.
Wrap Up
I ‘m likely overthinking things and should just load up on Antman and Wemby cards. I guess I still haven’t learned from back when I stocked up on Hinrich cards instead of Wade, Carmelo, or LeBron because they were “bargains” so it looks like more Amen Thompson cards in my future.
One of the only downsides of writing these columns is that I often talk myself into buying cards while writing. I’m going to start mentioning what I picked up when writing in the wrap-ups. This week I snagged a 2021-22 Topps Chrome OTE Amen Thompson green Refractor auto.