Topps Series 1 Rookies
The release of Topps Series 1 every year marks the turning of the seasons. For me, it is the hobby New Year’s celebration. A new season means new rookies and 2024 Topps Series 1 is packed full of some great ones. With a product chock full of rookies, it is time to get a handle on the 2024 class before diving in to deep.
I will note that a lot of big names have been held back for Series 2 and potentially Update. No Wyatt Langford, Jackson Holiday, Paul Skenes, Noelvi Marte, or Yoshinobu Yamamato here. The list below only ranks players that can be found in Series 1. So without further ado, here is a list of the top players I’ll be hunting.
Hobby Reaches
10. A.J. Smith-Shawver- The Braves were relatively quiet this offseason and didn’t add an ace like many expected unless you count Chris Sale (I don’t). Smith-Shawver is one of the reasons that the Braves resisted the starters in the market. He’s only 20 but has a great opportunity to snag the Braves fifth starter spot. While there is the thought that pitchers don’t fare well in the hobby (tell that to Mr. Skenes), Braves pitchers are an exception as the sizable Braves fan base flocks to them like moths to a flame. He’s one pitcher I won’t be disappointed to hit in 2024.
9. Henry Davis- The former number-one draft pick is set to take over the catching duties for the Pirates in 2024. With a wealth of interesting young talent on the team, playing for the Pirates might not be the hobby death sentence it has been for the past couple of decades. Davis is 24 so he’s no spring chicken and the hobby traditionally avoids catchers. The hobby has embraced Adley Rutschman though and I’ve long contended that the hobby normally has room for three catchers. With Molina, Posey, and Mauer gone, Davis will look to grab one of those three spots.
8. Cedanne Rafaela- Rafaela is exciting. He’s a speedster and defensive wizard who once stole six bases in a single game. He does need to develop his hitting a bit more to get hobby love though. I’m not sure he gets there, but his defense and versatility should be enough to almost guarantee him a long career. If his hitting does develop to just slightly above average, he’s got the potential to be a frequent All-Star. Fun fact: Rafaela’s middle name is Chipper after Chipper Jones.
Intriguing Hitters
7. Ronny Mauricio- Young power-hitting prospects will always get hobby attention. Mauricio’s power is developing nicely. Unfortunately, he’s injured and will have to wait until 2025 to show off. His plate discipline has also caused problems for him in the minors. Despite some struggles, his potential is impressive enough to land him on all of the Top 100 prospects lists. He’s less heralded than De La Cruz or Dominguez for sure, but he is similar in that his ceiling is high enough to force his way onto this list. Like those two though, the potential to be a bust cannot be discounted.
6. Zach Gelof- Gelof did the unthinkable last year in making me actually pay attention to the A’s. He consistently hit the ball extremely hard and played passable defense. He projected more as a utility player so it remains to be seen if his 2023 success was a fluke or indicative of his potential. He should have plenty of opportunity to play on the moribund A’s giving him time to develop without pressure. If he can duplicate his numbers from last year over a full season, he’ll hit around 30 home runs and have a WAR over 5. Only ten players did that last year and they are all perennial All-Stars. The jury is still out as to whether Gelof is the real deal or the last in a long line of players who have had hot starts to otherwise mediocre careers.
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand- At the start of last year there was debate over whether Encarnacion-Strand or De La Cruz was the better prospect. De La Cruz separated himself with some highlights, but don’t overlook Encarnacion-Strand. I can see a world where Encarnacion-Strand produces more than De La Cruz in 2024 for sure. It is hard to see him capturing the same level of hype though, especially given his age.
4. Sal Frelick- Frelick produced several big moments for the Brewers in his call-up last year and is looking to build on that for a full-season campaign. The Brew Crew is ready and “Better Call Sal” shirts are already a thing. Like the Orioles, Pirates, and Reds the Brewers have an interesting collection of young talent that could propel them to new heights. Frelick will get his shot this year and might even get to play in some meaningful games if things bounce the Brewers' way. His size is a concern, but smaller players also tend to become fan favorites so it might help him in the hobby world. He’s an all-around type of talent so I’d be more than happy to hit his cards out of Series 1.
The Upper Echelon
3. Elly De La Cruz- It’s a toss-up to me as to whether Elly or Jasson Dominguez has the highest ceiling amongst the rookies. Both have shown flashes that make it easy to see them as the future face of the league. Many years don’t have any players that have that potential, but Series 1 gives us two. De La Cruz struggled after his blistering start, but that should be expected for young players adjusting to the majors. The Reds have an intriguing young lineup and have the potential to mimic the Baltimore Orioles by turning that into a postseason appearance. He’s in what looks to be an ideal spot with expectations but not the insane pressure of the Yankees or Dodgers organizations. He’s also the most unpredictable of the rookies to me which keeps him out of my top spot.
2. Jasson Dominguez- It seems like the Martian has been around forever at this point, but he is still only 20 years old. He’s been hobby gold from the start and his cards will undoubtedly be among the most sought after. He looked great in his very brief call-up before getting injured. What makes him stand out is his absurd power and the Yankees mystique. Dominguez doesn’t just hit home runs, he hits tape-measure shots that will make the rounds online as highlights. The main knock against him is that his production in the minors has been inconsistent. With his incredibly high ceiling, I think collectors will be willing to overlook that.
1. Evan Carter- Carter burst onto the scene in the tail-end of the season and kept on going all the way to a World Series championship. It was a run that we haven’t seen since Andruw Jones’s rookie year with Atlanta. He hit well in the minors, but his numbers were nowhere near what they were in his brief stint in the majors. Expect his numbers this year to align with the minor league numbers. That would still make him an All-Star and if he can retain a bit of his heat he could even be in the conversation to snag some MVP votes. I think he has a slightly lower ceiling than De La Cruz and Dominguez but I give him the nod over them because he’s already proven he can be an integral producer on a championship team.
Wrap-Up and What’s Making Me Happy in the Hobby this Week
Undoubtedly, one of the other rookies will end up with a HOF-worthy career and make me look bad. I hope they do as half the fun in predicting which rookies will succeed is how hard it is to do. I’m also sure I overlooked a no-brainer prospect or two. Sound off and let me hear about it in the comments.
As for what’s making me happy in the hobby this week, it is none other than the release of 2023 Stadium Club. The set might be late and loaded with crappy autos, but it has the best photography every year and serves as a love letter to baseball. It’s great to have Stadium Club back.