Wemby Alternatives: Paolo
Wembanyama-mania is in full swing and rightfully so. Basketball overall though continues its moribund existence in the hobby. I’m starting to wonder if we are overlooking some gems while waiting for Wemby to reach his peak. Over the next couple of weeks, I’m going to check in on a few young NBA stars and try to figure out their place in the hobby Goldilocks’ style. Are they priced too high, too low, or maybe even just right? Hopefully, I’ll find a gem or two to stock up on.
Paolo
Up first is last year’s phenom that the hobby ditched faster than a freshman in a long-distance relationship, Paolo Banchero. At one point, people were talking of holding off of buying 2021-22 products to chase Paolo in 2022-23 products. Delays and solid but unspectacular production on the court caused fans to just keep waiting until 2023-24 and Wemby. It’s a shame as Paolo actually performed fairly well last year.
2024 Paolo has taken a major leap forward and collectors have been slow to notice. His stats are up and they weren’t bad to begin with. Paolo is an all-around player that can produce points, rebounds, and assists. His shooting, particularly from behind the arc, still has room for improvement, but he should be lauded for improving to 37% up from just under 30% last year from three. Many players hit their sophomore slump. Banchero did exactly what one wants from a young star and continued to improve.
Stats are great and all, but Paolo’s impact can best be seen by looking at the team as a whole. Last year he willed the Magic to a respectable 34-48. As of today, they have 42 wins with an outside shot at 50. Two years ago without Paolo, the Magic won a paltry 22 games. With an improvement of 20 wins his rookie year and 10+ wins his sophomore campaign, he now only needs to improve another 5-10 wins a year to have the Magic as a perennial contender for the top seed. Truly great players in the hobby must produce wins and Paolo is on his way there at least.
Banchero has put up good traditional stats. Savvy collectors might worry that he might be the latest in a long line of players that put up solid numbers only in the right situation. Often, we mistake these players for stars. Is Banchero on his way to becoming a star, or is he the next Elton Brand? Banchero has benefited from the stalwart defense on the Magic which has taken a lot of the pressure that comes from being the top pick off. I’m not too worried about this path yet given the wins in the regular season. I’d feel a lot better if he can win a playoff series or two though.
Paolo’s other secret weapon is his age. Pretty much every analyst is waxing poetic about how great Anthony Edwards is at a young age. Edwards has undoubtedly been great and I’ll look at him more in depth next week. I just don’t want to ignore Paolo who is even a year younger than Antman. With the Covid year exception, Paolo could still have a couple of years left to play in the NCAA Tournament if he had stayed at Duke.
The Cards
Paolo’s cards have dropped substantially, but it is a bit harder to determine if they are undervalued. According to CardLadder’s indices, Paolo’s cards have lost over 60% of their value from this time last year. His PSA 10 Prizm rookie used to be a $100 card, but the last one sold for $42 on eBay. As said, the drop is undeniable; however, the basketball market has dipped overall so maybe Paolo’s drop is just a function of market trends. The CardLadder basketball index is only down 24% from last year meaning that Paolo with his 60% drop has undoubtedly seen the hype die down and his hobby future become cloudy.
To figure out how players rank in the hobby I like comparing their PSA 10 Prizm prices. Paolo’s Prizm PSA 10 sells for $10 more than Trae Young’s and about $10 less than Zion Williamson's. I personally prefer Banchero to Zion, but putting him between Young and Zion seems reasonable so I can’t really make an argument that he is underrated. If Cade Cunningham was selling for more than Paolo, I might consider an argument that Banchero is underrated. Cunningham’s card are close to Banchero’s and I think the market has Banchero valued fairly. I’m just more optimistic about him. Ideally, I’ll find a player I’m optimistic about AND is undervalued though.
A Caveat
I would caution that most of the time with basketball buying the less heralded player almost never works out in the long run. Those who bought Chris Webber instead of Shaq, Dwayne Wade over LeBron, or Keith Van Horn over Duncan certainly didn’t come out on top. Still, the less heralded guys can definitely provide spikes in prices that provide opportunities to sell off cards at a profit. All that’s to say, maybe I’m overthinking things and should just go buy some Wemby cards.
Wrap Up
That’s it for this week. Let me know what you think of Paolo (politely) in the comments. As for what’s making me happy in the hobby this week, it is still Topps Team Logo parallels from 2024 Series 1, just gorgeous cards.