NL Central Hobby Preview
Welcome back to the ongoing MLB Hobby Preview. This week, it is the NL Central’s turn. The NL Central is a fascinating division from a hobby standpoint, mostly because of the variety of talent. It has my favorite team to talk about from a hobby standpoint and a traditionally important team that I think is surprisingly the least hobby-relevant in the game this year. Let’s see which is which.
Chicago Cubs
I’m torn on the Cubs. On the one hand, they signed Kyle Tucker, who is a personal hobby favorite I keep predicting to break out and be a perennial MVP candidate. OTOH, their odd insistence to make Sammy Sosa apologize to be brought back into the fold has me irrationally hoping the Cubs go on another 107-year World Series drought.
I’ll get over it and go on cheering for Tucker. I like Tucker to be in the MVP hunt this year and finally start getting some attention in the hobby. You can still easily pick up 2019 Heritage RC autos of Tucker for under $100, which seems cheap, but Tucker is no sure-fire HOF player, so caution makes sense.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is another reason to like the Cubs. He seems to already have fan-favorite status and has the energy/charisma needed to be a top-tier hobby talent. He’s a star defensively already. The big question is how much his bat can develop.
FWIW, the hobby has not looked well on slick-fielding outfielders unless they are All-Star hitters as well. Even that isn’t enough. Torii Hunter, Jim Edmonds, and Andruw Jones are three very talented, but definitely cautionary hobby tales about PCA’s hobby potential. For defensive specialists, it is Yadi Molina and Ozzie Smith as the lone two with substantial hobby value. That’s a tough ask for PCA.
I don’t see anything that suggests Cody Bellinger will be hobby-relevant again. He’s in the same camp as Dansby Swanson now of being baseball-good but hobby-irrelevant.
Cincinnati Reds
The vibe around Elly De La Cruz in the hobby is just odd. It’s like collectors can’t just relax and enjoy him. Instead, any mention of Elly is met with mumbles about strikeouts and often odd grumblings about Eric Davis.
Elly is the wildcard of the season. I’ll believe just about anything is possible with him. I’m just looking forward to seeing something I’ve never seen on the baseball field with Elly this year. I’d love to see him flirt with 100 stolen bases, and I think that is possible if he continues to decrease his strikeouts.
Elly is the rare hyped prospect I actually think is undervalued, given his incredible ceiling, and I think collectors have been more circumspect than normal with the reception Elly has gotten in the hobby.
Rhett Lowder is a pitcher I’m big on long-term. He’s a complete pitcher with a four-pitch arsenal and impeccable control. I’ve seen the name Maddux mentioned in multiple scouting reports. I’ve seen that plenty of times over the last 20 years, and it never pans out. It’s a profile I’m a sucker for though. I’m just waiting for prices to drop a bit.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are my secret favorite team in terms of hobby storylines. Jackson Chourio looks ready to be a superstar. He’s been popular this offseason, and bargains have been few and far between. Chourio played well down the stretch, and it's hard not to be excited about his 2025 potential.
The problem is like Wyatt Langford and Jackson Merrill; everyone is predicting big things. That means no bargains and relatively high prices. Chourio is the antithesis of a sleeper coming into 2025.
William Contreras looks like he’s about to reel off seven or eight All-Star game appearances in a row. He quietly finished in the top 5 in MVP voting last year, and I think that is likely to happen again.
Statcast is providing some new bat-tracking data, and it’s yielding some interesting results. The top hitters in the game are showing a blend of power and contact. Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Fernando Tatis offer the best blend of power and contact, which makes sense with their production. Right behind those three is William Contreras.
Contreras's rookie autos can still be had for under $25. His third year in a row receiving MVP votes should cause fans to realize that he’s the best-hitting catcher around. Still, collectors can be slow to recognize catching greatness, and he’ll need a playoff run or an MVP win to get much hobby attention. I think he gets some and finishes as a top-50 hobby guy.
Christian Yelich has been written off in the hobby, which is a bit of a shame. He’s still got a very narrow path to the HOF, but he’ll need three to four years of solid production like he hasn’t seen since 2019. The good news is that he flashed that level of talent last year when he was healthy. Ultimately, he’s most likely on his way to the Hall of Very Good, and that just doesn’t move the needle in the hobby.
I keep waiting for Freddy Peralta to develop into a clear ace. If he turns the corner, he’s amassed enough stats that it’s not too crazy to imagine him with 3000 strikeouts someday. If he hits that number, he’ll be in the HOF most likely. He’ll need 10 years of 200-strikeout ball to get there. That’s a gutsy bet, and I’ll wait five or six years before jumping in.
Brice Turang could be hobby good if he can just get to the level of an average hitter. He’s a terror on the basepaths and primed to be a WAR machine. He’s just below average in terms of hitting. Modest realistic increases to a .750 OPS guy could see him be a 6 WAR guy with 70+ steals. That’ll have some value in the hobby.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tons has been written about Paul Skenes. I just can’t fathom what he can do in 180 innings (optimistically) to justify his current prices. I said the same thing last year, and I was wrong, and all the Skenes believers reaped the rewards. I’m still selling any Skenes card I obtain immediately.
Oneil Cruz was the Elly De La Cruz from a few years ago. The hobby moved on after his injury, but it shouldn’t have. Cruz crushed the ball last year. No one hit a ball harder than Cruz’s max of 121 mph, and he had the third-highest average exit velocity in the league.
He’ll look to turn that hard swing into more home runs this year. He’s got 40-homer power, and I’m expecting a major uptick in the homer output this year.
Cruz wasn’t a prodigious signer his rookie year, and decent on-card autos still routinely go for over $100. That’s not too out of line for his power potential.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are boring from a hobby standpoint. Snoozeville. I really don’t want to write about them at all, with one exception (I’m assuming Arenado gets traded).
Masyn Wynn is their only real hope for a hobby star this year, and his path is doubtful. Still, he’s young, getting a good opportunity, and will provide solid WAR with good defense, if nothing else.
The fact that the Cardinals have been abysmal in developing talent recently has me staying far, far away. The Cardinals have had a ton of highly ranked prospects over the last ten years. Their inability to produce stars or even average MLB players is getting noticed on a regular basis now, and unfortunately, I’m just staying away from young Cardinals players as a rule until things change.
That’s all I’ve got for the Cardinals (the most boring team in the hobby), so I tacked on a bonus segment below.
Top 5 Guys I Think Jump a Level
I teach. One of the indignities of the profession is occasionally proctoring standardized tests. It can be mind-numbing. Every time I proctor one, I update my list of the top 50 MLB guys in the hobby. I tend to divide my list into tiers, and after the last one, it was clear to me that there were five guys I expected to finish the year at a higher tier than they started. These are those five.
1. Bobby Witt Jr.- I’ve got Witt ranked 3rd, but only in the second tier. I think he finishes the year 3rd but joins Ohtani and Judge as a clear first-tier talent.
2. Gunnar Henderson- I think Henderson jumps to a top 5 second tier star (currently 3rd tier and 10th overall). I’m watching the injury news nervously.
3. Corbin Carroll bounced back and looked like an MVP-caliber player down the stretch. He’s smashing the heck out of the ball in Spring Training (3 homers over 100 mph already) and will have some crazy combo of homers and stolen bases. I think he finishes as a top 15 player (currently 26th).
4. William Contreras- As mentioned earlier, I think Contreras makes another All-Star team and gets MVP votes. Three years of MVP votes will put him on the hobby radar, and I think he finishes as a top-40 hobby guy.
5. Riley Greene- Greene is barely in my top 50, but I think he finishes the season up two tiers and as a top 25 hobby player.