AL Central
Spring Training is underway, and I couldn’t be more excited. This week, I turn my attention to the AL Central, which is a bit of a mixed bag in the hobby. It’s a fun one in real life with four teams that have the postseason as a realistic goal and a team vying with the Athletics for the most moribund franchise title. Sometimes, parity can be fun. If you missed my AL West and NL West pieces, feel free to check those out as well.
Chicago White Sox
I’ve watched the White Sox fans in my life slowly lose their sanity over the last few years. Luis Robert is their only star of note left, and he’s likely to be traded soon. That will help his cards for sure, but Robert will turn 27 this year and needs to be putting up big numbers in his prime to recapture his past cardboard glory. Even with a big year, it might be too little too late unless he is a clear top 5 MVP guy.
A team bereft of stars is one full of opportunities. Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth could make an intriguing double-play duo and at least would give White Sox fans a glimmer of hope for the future. I’m hopeful that a no-pressure season with the White Sox will aid their development into big-league stars. Neither are close to sure things, though, and with the White Sox's recent history of player development, are mid-tier prospects rather than true blue chippers.
Cleveland Guardians
Jose Ramirez is well on his way to the HOF. He just needs a playoff or MVP run to garner more respect in the hobby. I think he’s most likely destined to be in that tier of HOF players like Larry Walker, Jeff Bagwell, and Jim Thome. No doubt first-ballot talent, but the hobby appreciation just isn’t there. It’s a shame, as he’s absolutely spectacular. Unfortunately, not many have noticed.
Steven Kwan is baseball good but not hobby good. If he stays with Cleveland for 15 years, he could be a very popular fan favorite. If he ups his game just a bit, he could start to get some more traction in the hobby. Both big ifs, but a fun player.
Emmanuel Clase is amazing. His stats are insane, and I expect him to dominate for quite a while. He’s also a closer in Cleveland with a PED suspension. He’ll have to be the second coming of Mariano Rivera to get a hobby following. I’m not betting on that, but a lot of folks are, as his rookie autos flirt consistently with a $100 price tag.
Detroit Tigers
Riley Greene is one of the players I’m most excited to see play in 2024. The 24-year-old had a solid All-Star season last year and looks to become the face of the Tigers for the next decade. Greene has MVP-upside as early as this year, IMO.
His cards are still cheap as collectors hopped off the Greene bandwagon when he got injured and forgot to hop back on when he made the All-Star team. I think the bandwagon will start getting full again this year.
Jace Jung, Colt Keith, and Spencer Torkelson all spent time as highly touted prospects. None have found their footing yet, and Torkelson looks like he might be headed to San Francisco as of writing this. I don’t expect any of the three to be hobby-relevant, but it is certainly possible, given their pedigree.
The true gem of the Tigers' roster is Tarik Skubal. The reigning Cy Young winner is just now fully realizing his potential and looks ready to be the clear ace of the American League as he moves into his prime years.
Skubal had autos in most 2021 products, so his RC autos aren’t hard to find in a wide range of prices. His nicer ones regularly cross the $100 threshold, which is becoming rarer for pitchers over 25. You might find young pitchers with high prices, but by the time they hit 26 or 27, the prices have normally cooled. Skubal is the rare pitcher whose cards are going up as he ages.
Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr. might be the most important guy in the baseball side of the hobby not named Ohtani. Last year, he proved that he could be an MVP (even if he lost) and the face of the league. He just needs to maintain his current levels of production and enthusiasm.
Witt seems to me to be the guy collectors are most seeking out and are excited about this year. Deals can be had on Gunnar Henderson cards, but Witt’s cards are creeping up in price when cards are normally cooling down. The excitement around him in the hobby is palpable.
Salvador Perez will have an interesting HOF candidacy. With 9 All-Star game nods, he’d join a handful of very good players the HOF has kept out with that many appearances. He likely needs at least two to three more highly productive years to be a sure thing.
Retiring with Kansas City will help, but predicting HOF voting with catchers is tough, and I’m not sure he’ll make it. I hope he does, or he risks getting the same hobby treatment as Javy Lopez, Brian McCann, and Jorge Posada, who are basically forgotten.
Still, if he gets to 300 homers this year and adds another All-Star game, it would become hard to deny a 10-time All-Star catcher with 5 Gold Gloves and 300 homers. With the HOF moving more to WAR as a determinative factor, I worry that Perez will get left out in the cold.
Cole Ragans had his breakout year last season. Not many noticed. Ragans pitched a healthy 180 innings last season and is one of only about 20 starters with a good shot to get to 200 this year (only four or five will).
He looks ready to join the group of solid youngish pitchers like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Logan Webb, and a few others that just don’t quite get to hobby relevancy. That means you can pick up a variety of Ragan's RC autos for under $20.
Full disclosure: I snagged a Stadium Club one for $12 while writing the last paragraph. That’s not bad at all for a youngish ace on an up-and-coming, exciting team.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are fun and exciting in real baseball. Their hobby presence leaves a lot to be desired, though. Carlos Correa is the closest they have to a star. He’s fallen out of favor in the hobby but still has a shot at making the HOF if he can stay healthy.
That’s a very big if, and collectors will need multiple seasons of high production to jump back on the Correa train. Correa will have some value as a fan-favorite from his Houston days. It just seems unlikely he’ll be a top guy in the hobby any time soon.
I’m very excited to see Matt Wallner get a full season of at-bats. After August, he was a top-30 hitter in terms of OPS and could be a 30-homer, 5 WAR player this year. Unfortunately, he’s on the older side, meaning he’d have to do something a bit more dramatic to get hobby attention. As a USM baseball fan, I’ll sneak a few of his cards into my collection, regardless.
I keep waiting for Joe Ryan to turn into an ace. He’s most likely just a solid pitcher that I have too many rookie cards of. I’ll keep dreaming.
The Twins are just chock-full of solid players that won’t move the needle in the hobby. Even if one breaks out, most of their roster is in the 26 to 29-year-old range and likely too old to reap the benefits in terms of card value, at least.
Wrap Up
I thought heavily about combining the NL Central with this one, as the NL Central is my least favorite division overall in terms of hobby storylines. Oddly, though, the NL Central has one team that might be the one I’m most intrigued with from a hobby standpoint, despite a lack of clear superstars. I’ll leave you to ponder which one until next week.