Anthony Edwards’ Wild Ride
Basketball is a fickle mistress. Look no further than the cardboard journey of Anthony Edwards to see the truth of this. He played well all year and his cards refused to rise. A couple of unexpected Playoff series wins later and his cards more than tripled. Three games later and they are back to earth and one can’t help but wonder where they’ll settle once the dust finally clears. It’s been a wild ride and it highlights one of the most underlooked factors in card price, the narrative.
My Story
Anthony Edwards was one of my big targets going into this year and was highlighted way back in issue 64 of the newsletter as one of the NBA’s biggest bargains. I also had Zion Williamson and Trae Young on that list, so I can’t really take a victory lap. One unintended consequence of writing these columns is that I often talk myself into buying cards while writing them. I went out and snagged ten nice Edwards cards when I wrote this column. To give myself full credit, Edwards was the only guy I bought after writing that column.
So, Congratulations are in order, right? Nope. I fell into a trap I knew existed. I got impatient with Edwards’ cards not moving during the season so I dumped most of them before the Playoffs run. The mistake I made was that I was treating a basketball card like a baseball card. I saw Ant’s good performance and stagnant prices and assumed that the market had moved as much as it was going to. That is how the baseball world works. Players play well, cards go up to a point, and that’s it.
The Story I Forgot
Baseball cards see slow and steady growth with good performances. Basketball cards resist upward movement as long as possible, even dipping during good play, and then explode once the spotlight shines on a player in the national media. Put another way, in baseball the numbers matter without much context needed. In basketball, stats, and even wins, are not enough. You need the story. I completely forgot about the amazing power the narrative has on the basketball (and football) card markets and so dumped Ant’s cards before the spotlight had a chance to shine on him.
You can see where the spotlight started shining on Ant by tracking his PSA 10 Prizm RC prices. It started the season priced around $100 and stayed there right until the end of the year when it took a quick jump to $130 in anticipation of the Playoffs. That’s when the narrative shifted. Suddenly, Minnesota wasn’t a flawed team with too many bigs and was the home of the second-coming of Michael Jordan. It was a sudden shift, but one that was caused by the stellar play on the court of Ant.
Collectors heard the message and they went gaga for Edwards. His Prizm PSA 10 more than doubled in price in the span of a couple of days and shot up all the way to a high sale of $357. Last year, the spotlight shone on Jimmy Butler and his cards saw similar gains. Ant’s cards have settled, but a PSA 10 Prizm is still fetching close to $200, or twice what it did all season.
The big question is, what will happen once the highs of the Timberwolves’ victories fade? Edwards has the task of drawing dollars away from Wemby-mania. He’ll also face competition from whoever comes out on top pf the Finals. Throw in Jokic and Giannis still at the peak of their powers and Edwards will have a lot of competition as the face of the league. On the plus side, he’s got upcoming tv series appearances and an opportunity to shine with the US National Team. He’s not simply going to disappear for a few months like many players do.
I also imagine many collectors feel like I do and are kicking themselves for selling early. I’m not sure at what price I’d consider Ant a bargain again, but it’s certainly a good deal more than what he was priced at all season. Collectors looking to jump back on the Edwards train or looking to get on for the first time will provide a floor for Edwards pricing that will be higher than it was all season.
Wrap Up
The narrative has shifted to Luka now and his cards are taking off. It’s hard for me to remember, but it pays to wait to sell until the spotlight is fully on a player. We’ll see if I remember this fact after I stock up on this year’s NBA target. Probably not.
