Panic Time for Bichette?

The panic button is a necessary weapon in every collector’s arsenal. Figuring out when to hit it when one of your favorites is struggling is one of the toughest decisions to make in the hobby. Sometimes stars have struggles and come back. Other times, a star that looked destined for the HOF will peak at 24 and never put up similar numbers again. It’s a tough call deciding which path a player is on, but if you avoid making it you wind up with over a hundred Pat Burrell rookies, or Troy Glaus, or Hanley Ramirez, or you get the idea. Every collector has stacks of some rookie card of a player that they just held onto for too long.

It’s hard to figure out what is a slump and what is a career downturn in any sport, but it is most difficult in baseball. The eye test often suffices in basketball and football. One can watch Russell Wilson or James Harden and draw some reasonable conclusions on if they’ll return to form. Baseball, on the other hand, can have a HOF player looking benchable during a slump. One such player that I’m trying to figure out if I should panic over is Bo Bichette. As I’ve been thinking about this recently, I thought I’d use this column this week to decide if I’m in panic mode yet and to walk through the decision-making process. So, let’s see, is it time to freak out over Bo Bichette’s 2024 yet?

Overview

Bichette has been one of the worst hitters in the first part of the season. He’s got a .226/.284/.327 slash line with only two home runs. He’s not only been bad, he’s been one of the worst hitters in MLB. He’s currently in the bottom twenty qualified hitters in MLB in OPS. He’s got good company with Jackson Chourio, Corbin Carroll, and Paul Goldschmidt, but it's not a list you ever want to be on. Carroll, Goldschmidt, and Bichette are vying for biggest non-injury disappointment of 2024. At this point, injury news might be welcome as it at least explains playing like bantha poodoo. So, overall a pretty dismal 2024 for Bichette so far. Is it time to panic?

Major Changes to Underlying Stats

My favorite criterion for panicking or not is comparing stats to past numbers. Has bat speed slowed? What about barrel percentage? If there aren’t any major changes, I’m less likely to panic. If there are major changes in the underlying stats, maybe it’s time to dump some cards.

Many of Bichette’s underlying stats look similar, or even improved, from past years. His exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit rate have all improved. He’s even striking out less. A lot of numbers hint at him improving, or at least not declining. So why does he stink? One reason is luck.

Luck

Luck plays a bigger role in baseball than perhaps any other sport. Hard-hit balls that magically line their way to a fielder’s glove can sap production. Teammates' performance can kill stats. Playing against excessively tough pitching or in tough parks can deplete numbers. Luck matters and quite often when a player is struggling, they really are just in an unlucky stretch and are actually playing at a similar level as they always do.

One way to gauge how luck is affecting a player is by checking their BABIP. BABIP is the batting average for balls hit into play. League-wide that number averages just under .300. Players with low BABIPS can be said to be unlucky although there are some non-luck reasons for low BABIP as well. Bichette’s is a sad .257 suggesting that he’s had more than his share of unfortunate circumstances. Another reason to blame luck is that his expected stats are also substantially higher than his actual ones as well. These stats all point to improved stats for BIchette just based on a change in luck.

Bichette has definitely had some bad luck. I don’t think his struggles can all be chalked up to luck though. Even if he was meeting his expected stats, he’d still be playing the worst ball of his career. I’m especially worried about the change in his barrel percentage and sweet spot stats. His barrel percentage is less than half of what it was in 2023 and the drop says to me that Bichette is having problems beyond being unlucky. He’s not hitting the ball as well and that’s hard to overlook.

Panic?

I’m worried about Bichette and the change in how often he’s barreling the ball is alarming. That and the fact that even if he was matching his expected stats he would still be struggling enough to send his cards tumbling. This is where pedigree, age, and past performance matter. When healthy, Bichette has been one of the better hitters in the league since his debut and scouts rave about his hitting endlessly.

Ultimately, I’ve settled on not panicking, but I’m also not running out to buy Bichette cards. Something is off and without a good reason for it (injury, change in approach) I’m not buying the dip and there has been a dip. His Bowman Chrome Auto in BGS 9.5grade sold recently for under $200. The card was trading for around $250 to start the season. It’s as cheap as it has been in ages and a long way off from its high point of $999 and yet I’m still hesitant due to his mysterious struggles.

Wrap Up

Hopefully, me walking through my own thinking might help some of you. When do you decide to panic and dump a player? Let me know in the comments.