Looking for Another Unicorn: Can Skenes Find a Rival?
Paul Skenes is doing the impossible and making waves in the hobby as a pitcher. His Topps Chrome Refractor Autos are going for between $600 and $700 raw or about 10x to 20x more than most hyped-rookie pitchers ever sell for. Is he a unicorn, or is he a harbinger of change that will lead other pitchers to hobby relevancy? My money is on unicorn, but let’s check out the candidates to join Skenes atop the hobby to see if we can do better than a knee-jerk reaction.
The HOF Locks
Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke are all destined for retirement and the HOF. Their places in the hobby are pretty much set in stone at this point. They are all popular and have collectors, but none of them will rival Skenes for hobby attention any time soon and his ascendancy will do little for their pricing.
Vets Vying for the HOF
Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, and Gerrit Cole need to beef up their resumes a smidge for easy entry to the HOF. Even if they put up enough stats to guarantee first-ballot induction, they are in the same boat as the HOF locks with their place in the hobby being fairly well defined. Sale and Cole saw some movement after recent Cy Young seasons, but not much and it is hard to picture them inducing FOMO.
Jacob deGrom is intriguing though. He’s dominant enough that a couple of peak-level seasons could cause a frenzy. It’s not likely to happen. It’s worth noting there is a path though and comparisons between Skenes and deGrom are likely. It’s a narrow path to stardom that will require him to throw more than 100 innings for the first time since 2019.
Hall of Good
Max Fried, Tarik Skubal, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, Zac Gallen, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Dylan Cease and Sandy Alcantara are all vets seemingly destined for the Hall of Good. There are a dozen other names that could get thrown in here as well. Any of these guys could materialize as a hobby star, but it will require multiple seasons playing at, or in most cases above, their peaks.
None of these guys seem destined for Skenes-level hype barring major changes in their output. They are fun to collect though as their cards are bargains compared to Skenes. Topps Chrome rookies of most of these guys run $25 and under. You can likely buy Topps Chrome RC Autos of the top 20 pitchers under 30 for less than the price of a Skenes Topps Chrome Auto.
Young Hurlers
Garrett Crochet was a bright spot on the worst team in history leading the league in strikeouts per 9 innings amongst starters. The 25-year-old was the most coveted pitcher potentially available this offseason and being rescued to a contender will greatly help his hobby value which is currently squarely in the bargain bins.
I think he can benefit from Skenes if their ERA is similar and he has more strikeouts. He’s basically a non-entity in the hobby though and it will take time for the collectorate to warm up to him. He might benefit from Skenes-mania, but he’s not going to rival it.
At 20, Eury Perez was gaining steam as a hobby darling. He got derailed by Tommy John as most pitchers seem to have happen to them. We’ve seen less than 100 innings of Perez, but they are a tantalizing sample showcasing his ability to be a legit ace in the league.
Perez could be a future rival for Skenes. There is just too much uncertainty around him to feel confident about his hobby prospects.
Collectors went gaga for Skenes’ strikeout numbers and rightfully so. Spencer Strider’s make them look pedestrian. Skenes averaged a healthy 11.5 Ks per 9 innings in 2024. Strider averaged over 13 per 9 in both 2022 and 2023. He also broke the ice for young pitchers getting hobby value as his cards had more attention than any young pitcher since Stephen Strasburg. The question with Strider is of course his return from injury.
Even with the injury, Strider seems the most likely rival to Skenes’ position in the hobby. He’s got the buzz and he’s already shown he can be more popular in the hobby than most pitchers.
Prospects
The real beneficiaries of Skenes’ popularity will be other pitching prospects. Collectors can no longer just write pitching prospects off as valueless and it’s not hard to imagine mad dashes to find the next Skenes.
Wrap Up
Skenes is a unique player and his hobby situation is unlikely to be duplicated. Still, if he has a rival as the top young pitcher in the hobby, I think it is likely to be a newcomer or perhaps Strider. It will be more fun if he does get a hobby peer so I’m hoping he does.