Topps Check-In
2024 Topps Series 1 has been out for almost two weeks now. That’s more than enough time for collectors and the market to decide how to treat this year’s offering. Early results are strong overall, but it is worth digging into some specifics. So, this week I’m delving into Series 1 to figure out what’s working for the set in the market and what’s falling flat.
Rookies
Modern products are only as good as their rookies. One of the quickest ways to get a handle on the relative hype of baseball rookies is by comparing the prices of their numbered Topps Gold rookies. Last year, 14!!! Different rookies saw their Series 1 Gold cards sell for over $30. This year, Elly De La Cruz and Jasson Dominguez have both hit $130. Evan Carter comes in third at $75. Marco Luciano, Ceddanne Rafaela, Colton Cowser, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Henry Davis, and Ronny Mauricio round out our rookies that have had their 2024 Topps Gold /2024 sell for over $30.
It is worth noting that these are high sales and most sales are MUCH lower now. It is also worth noting that this class might not be as deep as 2023’s with only nine players cracking the $30 threshold and three of those only breaching that mark with one oddball sale. The top of the class is stronger hobby-wise in that De La Cruz and Dominguez have seen more sales over $100 than Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman did last year. The buzz coming in to the year was that this class was more top heavy but not as deep. That tracks with how collectors have reacted so far.
New Additions
There are a lot of new bells and whistles in the year’s Flagship. Some things might’ve been best left on the drawing board and others are things I’m hoping will be in every Flagship release going forward. Let’s figure out which is which.
The Easter Bunny is coming. He’s hoppin’ down that proverbial bunny trail and right onto your cardboard. Topps has multiple Spring-themed parallels including one with bunnies. Yes, bunnies. The parallels, they really are multiplying, like bunnies. I’m biased about this one as I unequivocally love the new rabbit parallels and intend to collect a ton of them. I realize I’m in the minority here.
The reception to all of the Spring-themed parallels has been more wintry than anything. There have been four or five surprising sales (two on Christopher Morel cards what gives?) but most of these aren’t setting the world on fire. The plain Spring parallels are the most common of the Spring issues but might be doing better than the others when compared to pack odds as they look the most like a generic parallel.
Collectors are as unsure of Spring as Punxsutawney Phil is. They are very certain in their love for the Team Colors parallel though. There have been quite a few common and semi-stars with impressive sales. Sure, there are some low sales too, but a Cal Raleigh parallel going for $52 is a sure sign of a winning product to me. I can see these having legs as they are among the more attractive cards Topps has made in the last five years. Topps has a winner here and one that can be popular for a long time. Now, they jus need to not screw it up.
True Photos are the other big new parallel. They may take a bit of time to catch on though. Golden Mirror cards are outselling True Photo parallels despite the True Photo cards having a lower print run. The big question is if folks will catch on to these or not. If they do, early adopters can reap the rewards of low early prices. It is possible that these never catch on though and that these become difficult to sell/explain if Topps abandons the idea next year. The cards aren’t flashy which lessens the likelihood they become a hit.
Then there’s the elephant in the room. Well, a tiny elephant. Topps snuck Kevin Hart onto the Philadelphia Phillies cards in a parallel limited to 52 copies. There haven’t been many early sales, but two of the less popular players saw their cards sell in the $300 range. No one knows yet if these will be tied to a promotion like last year’s Tacofractors or if these are just some goofy fun with one of Fanatics’ celebrities.
Old Favorites
Returning favorites are more established, but they are worth looking at too. Home Field Advantage cards are thankfully back, Topps has kept the same aesthetic with a few minor tweaks and they’ve also kept the odds or print seemingly the same. The market for HFA cards is pretty well established at this point with minor stars going for $10 to $20. The Elly is unsurprisingly the big seller selling for around $120 although it should be noted that the range for it goes from $70 to $150. These are slightly higher figures compared to what Wander Franco and Julio Rodriguez sold for when their HA cars were released. The set is being treated as business as usual but Elly is proving to be a bigger draw than any rookie since 2018.
Heavy Lumber cards are also back and have a stated print run of 500. The cards are printed on wood stock and they are becoming a staple in Topps Flagship. They haven’t caught on as well as the HFA cards and the prices indicate this. Topps has added extremely rare autographed versions that have the signatures on pieces of game-used bats. These unique and attractive cards have been strong sellers with copies of the signed Aaron Judge fetching over $500.
Golden Mirrors are still all the rage, but the frenzy is not there like it was last year. The cards still sell very well, but the days of commons getting $60 are over. The format does seem to be working though as the cards are somewhat obtainable yet rare enough to drive demand. These look like they are here to stay and that’s a very good thing.
Lastly, it’s great to have some great-looking Independence Day parallels for the first time since 2019. The last few years’ designs can be charitably called lazy. Collectors aren’t flocking back to the set yet, but a few early sales suggest that this might once again rise to the top of the ever-growing pile of parallels.
Wrap-Up and What’s Making Me Happy
It will take years, if not decades, for me to fully appreciate 2024 Topps Flagship’s place in the hobby. Heck, I didn’t like the 1990 design until 2020. I’ll probably change my mind about the cards and players hundreds of times in the next 30 years. This is only the starting point.
As for what’s making me happy in the hobby this week, it is finishing up 2023’s HFA set just in time to get going on the 2024 version. I’m looking forward to the 2024 set as the tweaks they made make the cards look better than ever.